The Laughing Wolf

Space Commercialization: Towards A New Star, Part II

Standard caveats apply.

Well, yesterday was NASA’s turn in the woodshed, and fair is only fair after all. So, today I want to address some issues on the other side that are hurting commercialization efforts.

If you want to hate NASA and blame everything bad in the world on it, fine. You are welcome to do so, but that attitude does nothing to advance private space activities. If you really want to change or eliminate NASA, you need to approach it as you would a business plan.

That means, you need to do more than just bash NASA with the standard phrases. What you need to do is list specific issues and items, document the problems with citations and other evidence, and present them to your congresscritters and the White House. You need to provide at the same time, constructive suggestions. This is an area where most organizations and people fail.

It is easy to say something is bad, it needs to go. The hard part is offering something in its place. If you want NASA to go, provide a framework of reasonable suggestions of what should be done in its place. It is not going to get you or your ideas far simply to say “Private industry will do it all.” The waving of the magic wand approach does not hold water, and it will not provide sufficient reason to eliminate an entire agency and its employees.

Instead, you need to say something along the lines of “Launch services can be provided by X, Y, and Z; orbital tracking and control can go to the Air Force; these functions can go to A, B, and C; and regulation of private industry can go to Transportation or Commerce. It is also worth noting that putting in a plan that says “Give me all your propulsion work and I will do it cheaper, faster, and better” won’t get you far either, unless you can provided detailed documentation on exactly how you will do this.

Everyone can, and should, complain. The serious people need to do more, and providing concrete, constructive suggestions is mandatory to being taken seriously. The problems are easy to see, it is finding workable solutions that is difficult. If you can’t provide the latter, then you really are a part of the problem.

It will also help that if you want to take part in debates, be more than a one trick pony. The number of times I have taken part in real or on-line debates where one party has made every response something on the order of “Space is for the people, not the government” is frankly unbelievable. No matter the subject, no matter the citations, this is the only thing some people can come back with. If that is all you can provide, then kindly shut up because you are hurting things a hell of a lot more than you are helping.

Not only are you failing the tests of rational discourse, you are making it easy for the opposition to focus on the trivial. They will, and do, use you and those like you, to marginalize everyone in the debate. They can honestly say that you did not come to debate, that you offer no suggestions or other information of merit, and that such “extremism” is all that is being offered. With that, everyone is dismissed, and rather effectively too.

I will also urge you to “get real.” It is great to talk about all the wonders that lie down the road, from asteroid resources to H3 mining on the moon, but there needs to be a lot more focus on the here and now. Investors do look down the road, but if all you are doing is pointing to a distant peak and saying “when we wave our wand a road will appear and we will be there instantly” you are going to loose them. Look towards that distant peak, but start building the road. At least show them a workable plan for building the road, one that does not depend on dues ex machina and other magic wands to overcome obstacles.

Imagine if you will Lewis and Clark, slightly updated:

“You see that mountain over there? We can pull 20 tons of iron, 5 tons of molybendium, and 3 tons of zinc out of it each day. No EPA regulations, no permits, and the ore can be processed on site using natural energy sources that are right there. All we will have to do is take in what we need to live, some special resources, and a pilot plant. Over there, that peak to the right. We can pull H3 out of it for use on-site and back here. Clean, abundant energy, gotten for pennies on the ton. Over there, to the left, is a plain where we can pull in precious and heavy metals. That valley just before the peaks is perfect for refining and production, and there is no worry about pollution as we can reprocess most of the waste. What isn’t reprocessed or used for building is carried away by the wind. What do you say, Investor?”

“Wow! This is great. You found all this in your preliminary surveys?”

“Yep. Here are the reports from our probes and on-site explorations. It maps it all out, provides quantities, what it will take to get the stuff out, and then to process it.”

“This is fantastic! How long will it take to get this going?”

“No time at all. Once we have your investment, the road will be there and we will get cracking.”

“The road will be there? What do you mean? Isn’t there already a road?”

“Well, no. Only a trail right now, that is why we need your investment.”

“Okay, well then, how long will it take to build the road? Who will build it?”

“Companies will come out of the woodwork to do this job and be a part of it. Once we have the money, they will come.”

“Really. Well, can I look at the plan for the road? There sure are some steep cliffs and deep rivers between here and there.”

“Well, there really isn’t one. We know that the companies will have their own and they will work.”

“Oh. So, you don’t have even a picture of where you want to start, much less a plan with milestones for this road? No surveys to be sure it can be built?”

“Well, no. We just sort of figured that we will wing it.”

“So, for this I gave up my lunch at Spago? You have wasted my time on a dream with no practical way in mind to make it happen? Good day!”

This really is what has been put forward too many times. The potential is out there, but a practical way to get there is needed. Unless and until a practical plan is put forward, you are not going to get the money for the road.

So, if you want to be serious and taken seriously, start matching your words with actions. Do more than just talk, start providing real information. Provide documentation, suggestions, and plans. Plans that are realistic, have valid waypoints, and clear opportunities and benefits for all. Then, and only then, will things get taken seriously.

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