The Laughing Wolf

Space Commercialization: Towards A New Star Pt. III

The standard caveats still apply, as they did in the beginning and as they ever shall be, world without end.

The joint press release on regulation issued the other day through XCOR reminded me that as much as things have changed, they also have not changed that much. It took me back almost twenty years, to when I was an eager reporter covering space and commercial space activities.

The early 80s were an interesting time for that. There was no commercial launch industry, though quite a few talked game. The game, however, was moot because NASA held a monopoly and was determined to keep it. The first efforts to develop “appropriate” regulations for commercial space industries were just being discussed, and one of the largest issues was who was going to do it.

The Department of Transportation claimed pride of place, as did the Department of Commerce and NASA. Industry was scared to death that NASA would get it, or would be allowed to effectively control the process elsewhere. If they wrote the regulations, it was a sure bet that the regulations would effectively prohibit private competition, at least according to almost everyone outside of NASA. This did include some people speaking off the record at other agencies.

These other people, along with certain members of Congress and various business interests, had a good point and reason to be concerned. The deck was being quietly stacked against private space companies. The interviews I did were quite interesting, and what was said off the record even more so. To be honest, I was inexperienced enough that a lot of it did not sink in then, and it was only later that I put some of it together.

The other interesting thing was that I could not find an outlet for stories on regulation anywhere. Then again, it was hard to find outlets for space stories period. Aviation Week covered the topic, but they were a closed shop. Newspapers, magazines, and other outlets just were not interested, and particularly not interested in stories about proposed or possible regulations of what was effectively a non-existent industry.

For better and worse, things languished in this mode for a few years, until the Challenger was destroyed. Minor rant, it did not blow up. It broke apart, and there is a heck of a difference. With that loss, Reagan told NASA to suck it up and took the launch monopoly away from it. They have never forgotten this, nor have they truly forgiven it.

The regulation issue did not really change all that much, though, simply because it was mostly satellites and disposable payloads going up. NASA still held the monopoly on manned space flight – until now.

Now, they have competition there as well. Scaled Composites is moving right along, and they have a habit of doing things no one else can or would do, and doing it well. XCOR is also moving along smartly, and they were one of the first companies to come along with a development program that I both liked and of which I approved. Some smart thinking went into it, and it shows. There are a couple of other serious contenders out there, but in my highly biased opinion these two are at the top. For other companies of interest, check out that press release I mentioned earlier.

Regulation is either going to throw open the doors, or it is going to kill the commercial launch industry before it ever has a chance to get off the ground. There will be no middle ground on this.

The right regulations that ensure reasonable safety to those onboard and those on the ground, and limit liability, are essential. This needs to be the minimum amount of regulation possible, as most will come from the companies themselves. They can’t afford a screwup because any such will sink them. They can’t afford to lose vehicles or people, or have something auger in anywhere other than uninhabited desert or ocean. They need reasonable protection from and limitation of damages and such unless the royally screw the pooch. If that happens, they know that it will not only take them out, but the entire industry as well.

The problem is that the regulations being put in place or considered will put a tremendous burden on them. The paperwork burden is staggering enough as it is right now, though typical for government operations. The paperwork to fly on NASA can easily exceed six feet in height, so government types who have no experience in the real world can’t understand why anyone who wants to fly would object to such. That is the way it is done now, after all.

No, its really not. No plane taking off has to fill out reams and reams of paperwork, undergo extensive testing and verification, and take years of effort to do each flight. If this were the case, we would not have an airline industry at all – and we seem to be working hard to kill it as it is.

What is needed for space operations is some common-sense regulation, minimal paperwork, and the same liability limits as given the airlines. So what if it leaves the atmosphere, it is still a flight.

Of great concern to industry right now are the new regulations, er, guidelines developed by NASA recently. I am not sure any NASA vehicle meets these requirements, so there is great concern when it is suggested they may be applied to industry. If we stick industry with the same ridiculous requirements that NASA operates under there will be no industry. NASA wants everything to work perfectly every time, any time, and has had a zero-defect environment in terms of safety. How well it has worked for them is obvious, and the fact that a zero-defect environment is always counterproductive managed to elude Goldin and his managers, and seems to be escaping many currently in management. The horror stories of the safety drive are many, but those are left for a truly enterprising reporter to go dig up, but they are there. Along with the strong drive to make sure nothing becomes a problem or gets identified as such, the inevitable corollary to zero-defect anything.

The fact is, there will be losses just as there are now airliner crashes and accidents. Everyone works to minimize them, and no one seriously suggests grounding all planes everywhere anytime a Piper Cub or a 727 goes down. What is done is to figure out what happened, put out a NOTAM, make any hardware fixes required, and get on with it. Anytime we loose a NASA craft, we take years to go through and try to fix things so that absolute safety is assured.

Face facts. There. Is. No. Such. Thing. As. Absolute. Safety. Not this side of the grave, at least. It is sad when we lose people, but not the end of the world. Part of the secret of America, and one that everyone foreign or domestic who hates America absolutely can't stand, is that we embrace risk. We always have. Moving here was not a sure thing, and moving out into the wilderness was not a Sunday drive into a park. People died. Towns burned. Caca occureth. We, as individuals and as a nation, accepted that and pressed on. If you really bother to study history, you will find it was embraced and the risk became part of the pleasure. There is no reason we should not continue this tradition as we change frontiers.

And since I know it will come up, yes, I am willing to put my money where my mouth is on this. I am a licensed pilot, I am working on getting back into full fighting shape, and I am willing to go, risks and all. Do you have the courage to join me?

My own opinion is that NASA should have little or no input to this process. They are at best a tainted witness and at worse highly-motivated partisan with a large financial stake in stacking the deck. Regulating a new industry so that it can get off the ground will be a delicate task, and calls for the lightest possible touch at the start.

You can make a difference on this. Let your congresscritter know how you feel on the issue. Make your letters and calls polite, fact-based, appropriately detailed, and constructive. Provide positive suggestions, positive feedback, and do so within the norms of what passes for civilized behavior in such contacts. If enough people speak up, the regulation can be done in a way to benefit all. It just takes each individual to live up to their responsibilities as a Citizen. Go thou, therefore, and be counted.

-30-