The Laughing Wolf

Commercial Aircraft Anti-Missile Defense

Earlier today, I wrote a quick piece on commercial aircraft anti-missile defense. The situation is complex and deserves a fuller response, so here is my first take on it.

First, I think that the times are such that commercial, civil/general, and military aircraft all should have some form of anti-missile defense. Ideally, this would be on a voluntary basis, but I am also sure that the rampant desire by the political hacks to be seen “doing something” may well make it mandatory.

Second, I think that the cost will be well above the $10 billion figure that is being tossed around so casually today. It may well cost that to purchase and install the systems in all U.S. based carriers, but it leaves out the associated costs: the down time for the planes, the down time for the crews, the training time for the people responsible, etc. I rather suspect that this figure could easily double if all the costs of doing this are considered.

Third, I think that the current systems can and should be improved, particularly for commercial aviation. Right now, the trend is toward two-person crews on the flight deck, and as a pilot I can tell you that they are usually fairly busy during taxi, takeoff, and landing. Since this is also the time when a missile attack is most likely, any commercial anti-missile defense will need to be highly automated.

Fourth, I don’t think the government, that is each taxpayer, should be footing the bill in this manner. I would much rather pay a slightly higher ticket price and reward those who do develop and install such systems, than to have the government involved. Just look at how the FAA and TSA have done so much good for commercial and civil aviation. Yes, that is heavy sarcasm there, and if you don’t think that having the government mandate and pay for anti-missile systems would be yet another bureaucratic clusterfuck, then you are not paying attention.

All that said, I think such systems need to be developed and implemented. We need a new generation of systems that will, in turn, drive the development of even more sophisticated military systems.

Commercial space activities are already playing a role in this. One of NASA’s commercial space centers, or whatever they are being called this week, had developed a mid-range IR semiconductor laser that works at room temperature. This laser may well prove a key to one part of an anti-missile system, and there are partners including the U.S. Air Force already working on this.

Other advanced electronics and programming will also help. With more sophisticated processors and systems, countermeasures will require less human input. This is critical in a cockpit, where there is already quite a good bit to do, a high stress level, and severe penalties for mistakes. Adding yet more life-and-death to this mix is foolish, so the systems need to be as standalone as possible. While true AI is a ways away, there already exist sophisticated enough programs to handle something like this. Something that can detect a threat, begin spoofing it, and let the crew know that they have a problem.

There is also one other thing that will help improve security for such situations: an informed and active citizenry. Right now, there is nothing to stop a terrorist from stopping a car near an airport, getting out, targeting a plane on the ground or taking off/coming in. With modern systems, and the SA18 and related are quite good, you can set up and fire in a matter of a minute or two. This means that “the proper authorities” are not going to be able to respond in a timely manner, unless we turn into a police state and flood every square foot for miles around each airport with security officers.

What it does mean is that each Citizen may well be required to be alert, be informed, make a good judgment call, and do what is needed if they see someone doing this. Yes, the authorities should be called, but at the same time the person with the missile needs to be distracted and/or dealt with. That is one of the responsibilities of being a Citizen, and we should not shirk from it.

Right now, the politicians and political hacks are in a tizzy, each fighting for airtime and to be seen “doing something.” What we need to do is resist temptation to rush in and create yet another large government program. What is needed is to step back, look at what is practical and doable for now, and begin work on systems that will be effective for the commercial environment, and will drive a new generation of technology to truly help improve security.

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