The Laughing Wolf

The Lights Slowly Come Back On

Yesterday’s major blackout continues, but power is slowly being restored to the areas that were effected. From the upper mid-west to Canada to New York, the ripples in the grid managed to do what was supposed to be impossible, and did it all in about nine seconds. While many are already talking about how bad it was, I am surprised it was not worse and am not at all surprised at how poorly prepared many locations were for the event.

Back in 1976, I took part in a National Science Foundation Summer Studies Program that focused on energy and national policy. I had heard of the power grid, and in my somewhat anal retentive mind saw it as a neat organized grid just like you found on grid paper. Boy, was I ever wrong.

The national power grid is really an international power grid, and rather than being one grid, it is a collection of regional and local grids patched together in a variety of fashions. The technology involved varies wildly, from some small parts with the latest and greatest, to significant portions that are using technology more than a half century out of date.

In biological organisms, hybridization usually brings a stronger system. In technological hybridization the same thing can occur, but it is far more likely that the result will be far weaker. Imagine trying to put together a computer network where each unit is a stand-alone system using different configurations and operating systems. Then you start to get a picture of the power grid.

Now, it really is not that bleak, but the fact is that major portions of that grid have not had the improvements needed to keep pace with the changes in the world. We now are far more dependent on electrical power than at any time in history. Not only are lights, heating and air systems, water pumps, gas pumps, and related systems needing electricity, the basic control systems for most things in our life require it as well. Computers are not merely on our desktop, and sometimes even controlling our home, they are in almost every appliance and modern convenience today.

You may think that if you have a gas stove, that a power failure might not affect you. Yet, if it is a modern, energy-efficient system, you would be wrong. Even gas stoves that have piezoelectric starters usually have a control system that requires outside power. Eliminate that power, and the stove will not cut on nor in many cases can you manually cut it on because of the built-in safety features.

This is but one example of how dependent we are on electricity. There are multitudes more, but I think the point has been made.

Yet, at the same time as demand has increased along with critical dependency, the power system as a whole has been not merely neglected, but deliberately stymied for years. With many groups, anything that a power company or provider wants is automatically evil, no matter what. It is almost a tenet of some environmental groups that power anything is bad for the environment. With others, it is an attempt to gouge the consumer, disrupt the view, etc. As a result, needed new transmission lines are disallowed; hardware upgrades at plants are blocked; operating and transmission system improvements do not occur; and, new sources of power are eliminated.

Take a look at the construction of new power plants as an example. Take a look at how many are being built, how many are needed, how many were planned but cancelled, and how many are planned. Then take a look at how long it takes just to get approval for a new plant, much less bring it on line. Then take a look at the new plants as a function of time, and then compare that to the rate of demand increase. It is not a pretty picture.

Now that you have done that, start looking at the associated systems. How many new transmission lines have gone up? How many do the companies say are needed? What is the rate of improvement in systems and hardware? How many have you opposed directly or indirectly?

Yes, power companies are out to make money and some have been greedy pigs. At the same time, they do have the right to make a nice profit and have the funds to plow back into the business to make improvements. In many cases, this has not been done. Some of it is the fault of the businesses involved, because they have made bad decisions and put a higher profit ahead of needed reinvestment. Some of the fault lies with us, the consumers, and the regulatory boards that are in place that prevent rate hikes and other related issues that would provide the funds needed. Activists, management, government, and consumer: we all share in the responsibility for the neglect.

We also share responsibility for the lack of preparedness. As individuals and as business entities, how many had basic flashlights or emergency lighting of any sort in our homes or offices? How many had some form of UPS for computer or other critical systems? Emergency water for drinking and cooling, or even for flushing a toilet? A plan for what to do if there were a blackout?

Back in 1976, I was stunned at the number of businesses, high-rise buildings, and others that had little or no preparedness. Even some of those places that had systems did not have working systems, as tests showed. It is not enough just to have such, you have to maintain it and you have to test it. I remember well one such test out at NASA that took out power for a much longer period of time than planned when the emergency backup system did not work.

Today, I see it as being as bad or worse. Our dependency has increased and our preparations have – in my opinion – decreased. Just look at New York, where major hotels had people leaving to sleep on the street because there was no ventilation, no way to open the windows, and no way for most to get up to the top floor rooms where the heat was building up the worst anyway.

The good news of the day is that what happened appears not to be terrorism, though it may have just given them a heck of a nudge towards a vulnerable target. It also does not appear to have been a lightening strike in Niagara, a fire near New York, or other rumored point of start. The best speculation so far appears to be that it started in the mid-west, but that is still speculation. It may be several days before the event can be traced and time-lined.

The good news is compounded by the way in which most people took the event: there were very few problems and those isolated. Most people joined together, made the best of a bad situation, and some even appear to have had a good time from what is being shown on network news this morning. Somehow, rather than this being a disaster that set people at each other, in the wake of 9-11 it brought people together, and brought out the best in many or most. That is an incredibly good thing to see.

If we truly want to prevent this from being a problem again, either through chance or by terrorist design, we need to begin paying attention to the grid. The things that are needed to bring everything up to date should be identified, costs set, and appropriate rate hikes or re-allocations made. Where money is already being set aside for improvements, it would be good to be sure that it is actually going for such and not into some bit of political pork.

Despite all, we do have the best power (and health and a few other things) system in the world. Now we just need to make it the best it can be, so that the lights will remain on and our advances in all areas can continue.

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