The Laughing Wolf

Taking Back Space: What Should Companies Do?

In previous discussion, we have looked at the problems with the current situation, and begun discussions on what the government should be doing in space. That topic will be revisited, but there is a larger and more important task to examine: What should companies do in space?

First off, let’s get rid of the idea that one of the giant companies is going to do anything, because they won’t. The current conglomerates are to firmly wedded to the existing model to do anything truly revolutionary, or that might upset the good thing they have going. In addition, there is not truly a role for a conglomerate – yet.

The fact is, we need some diversity. We need diversity in technology; diversity in services; and, diversity in operations. One company trying to do it all can’t succeed in the current regulatory and financial market. This is a good thing, however, since the crucible of competition is needed to really push things along.

Where to start is simple: Launch. While there are partisans for various companies, what we truly need are partisans for specific goals. There needs to be someone who offers small services, such as one to five people or equivalent cargo to suborbital or LEO; there needs to be someone who covers the 5-20 or equivalent cargo range; and, someone who offers the heavy-lift capability. All should cover suborbital range to LEO at a minimum, and some or all should also provide a direct or transitional option to MEO. Since these will be pursuing different markets, it would be a great thing if there were several companies competing in each, but that will take time.

The time is because no one has yet established a viable business case for any of the three options. The first steps have been taken, but a true and viable business case has not been presented or proven to date. Now, there are some strong candidates for this: X-COR, Scaled Composites, and Elon Musk’s new operation hold promise for this. Yet, until one or all of them succeed, the case will not be made in terms of obtaining ready financial backing.

This is a particular hobby horse of mine, but it does need to be repeated: To go into space the investment community has to be brought on board. The majority of investment banks, investment funds, angel networks, and other sources are not going to come into this in a big way on the basis of dreams and might-be-great-opportunity isms. They are going to demand research, hard figures, and realistic plans. The companies just mentioned have taken the first steps towards that, but you must remember that the investment community has heard this before from many other promising companies. Until someone begins to show real proof in hard numbers and currency, they are not going to put truly significant amounts of money into start-up space operations.

Jumping back, we need three different areas for three different business models.

Small-scale is the first, since a low-cost way to prove space tourism, limited experimentation, and related technology development is critical for many early models. In addition, it can provide proof of ability to take small payloads to orbit on an as needed basis, which also happens to provide an important capability for LEO and MEO operations. Right now, it cost several million to send seven people into space; if, on the other hand, it can be proven that you can take one or a small number and put them in space, at a space station, etc., and do so in the thousands of dollar range, then you have made a huge point. Furthermore, you can then make a nice profit providing tourist packages, experiment development and operations, passenger delivery, and small-scale cargo delivery.

Medium-scale is next, as it proves that larger scale tourism is viable, as well as providing a more significant cargo capacity. Of equal importance, it also could provide what the shuttle never truly has: a shirt-sleeve laboratory environment. Instead of a large load of passengers, it could take just a couple of people and some experiments up and do the Spacelab/Spacehab thing and do it for a lot less. The doors opened here are obvious and left for the student.

Large-scale also has to be addressed. There already is a need for long-term experimentation and related resources. The only way that commercial space research labs, orbital satellite servicing centers, and other delights of the space enthusiasts can become reality is with some form of heavy lift capability. You need to be able to loft large or heavy packages into orbit, and do so in an economical manner. Big dumb boosters can do it, but they are an expensive and limited proposition. While there are some things for which they may always be the best solution, they are rarely the optimum solution for most situations.

Okay, now you can get to orbit, what then? Again, as I have discussed in previous posts, the business models and plans have yet to be proven. NASA’s Space Product Development Program was helping to make the case, but the work done there is limited. As biased as I am, it did a good job given the limited opportunities and the internal fights it has to wage to keep trying to do what it was tasked to do: get businesses hooked on space.

The fact is that there are plenty of opportunities, and theories of how orbital research will benefit all types of industry, but the actual research and research time is extremely limited. This also applies to other ideas as well, from orbital power farms on to resource harvesting.

The good news is, however, that there is some base on which to make realistic business plans, and ways to do the preliminary research on a profit making basis. Much of this, however, depends on the launch services. Once they are proven, the other operations begin to become economically viable.

Think a bit about this, and look at it from an economic point of view: what else is needed in terms of launch services? What are the positives? What are the roadblocks? What can be done to remove roadblocks and enhance operations? What are ways to encourage the development of new launch technologies outside of direct government control?

These are all questions that need to be addressed, and it is up to each of us to do so. That is, if we really want to get into space. What say you?

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