The Laughing Wolf

Near-Term, Incremental Space Business Development

While I have covered this before in a series of extended entries (go check out the space commercialization archive), it is time to address the topic in a single post. The fact is that there are many large, grandiose schemes for space businesses. I used two of the larger ones as examples in yesterday’s post: Helium Three and asteroid mining. These are indeed two promising and potentially huge business opportunities. They are also, for now, a sure way to die as a business.

As unpalatable as it may be, the world is not yet ready for serious discussion of such topics. Or, I should say, the financial community is not yet ready to look at anything with that as its major or only means of revenue production. That such can be a long-term goal – even with the disdain that many in industry and finance hold the idea of long-term planning – is a given. It just can’t be a short term goal because that would require the Magic Technology Fairy to come wave its wand and make all right with the world.

Right now, the key is the lack of launch capability, or rather the lack of a non-governmental launch entity with realistic pricing. To get that, we need people like X-COR, Scaled Composites, Elon Musk, and others to succeed. We need that three-tier system discussed the other day with full competition. With that, many things can happen.

To get the financing required means that someone needs to win the X-Prize and move forward. We need to show that there are some near-term, easily provable business opportunities in space. Tourism is a proven, but it is limited and will not open the floodgates. That will take the presentation of several avenues of revenue, but the good news is that a lot of this has already been done.

A conflict of interest reminder. I did work as a contract employee of NASA and you need to be aware of that, just as you need to be reminded of my previous post in regards NASA. Specifically, I was Director of Outreach for NASA’s Space Product Development Program, and it was the work done by industry through that program that offers up a lot of provable opportunities. My thoughts and prejudices on NASA do not mean that I am automatically a supporter of same, or that I can not and will not point out when it does something good.

If nothing else, the program has shown that there is a business opportunity for basic industrial research in space. There are many theories about how a variety of businesses could benefit from doing research and development in space, and possibly even production there. The problem is, very few of them have ever truly been explored and proven or disproved.

For all the time that the program has existed, the actual amount of time that has been devoted to commercial research in space is beyond miniscule. This is a factor of only being able to launch through NASA, the lack of a reliable launch schedule, and the high cost of participation. While those in the program pay a reduced launch cost, there is still the considerable NASA paperwork and flight process to go through and while the Commercial Space Centers buffer industry, it is not a painless process by any stretch of the imagination. Indeed, a number of companies – if not industries – have walked away because of the paperwork, the time to fly (often years), the fact that their payload can be bumped in favor of a political or science favorite, and such. Those walking, as well as those who stayed, show that there is an interest. So, could there be a commercial opportunity in providing a budget multiplier to industry, along with the resource of space and microgravity to industry? Hmmmmm…

Even if no one is willing to pursue that, there are some clear areas that fit the bill: foundry and metallurgy, flavors and fragrances, microbe growth and control, and others. Go check out the archives and follow those trails. Go to the SPD site and check to see what is going on right now, even during the lack of flight.

I see several opportunities that are small enough to be easily doable, near-term, and that would prove several new revenue opportunities for space commerce. In addition to doing the research, there is an opportunity to provide an industry-friendly space station, manned or unmanned; experimental hardware and facilities; and, of course, the launch opportunities for same. Add to this advertising opportunities, entertainment opportunities, and related revenue streams, and it could generate a more than fair return.

Never mind that such facilities would be well above the average terrorist, or that true isolation for hazardous work is available. Never mind that orbital resources such as vacuum, power, heating and cooling, or specialized radiation environments are naturally occurring there.

What, do you want me to do all the work? No, that is up to you. I have my eye on a couple of ventures that I may jump into. What you do is up to you. All I suggest is that you think near-term, think easily provable, and think profitable.

This is what is needed to help leverage launch development. With that, a stable economic base can be built, and then the larger dreams built upon it. Launch, near-term research, long-range research, and more will provide the foundation. Think about it. Then, go work to get rich off of it.

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