The Laughing Wolf

Iraq: Signs of Desperation

The recent events in Iraq show a clear sign of desperation on the part of the leadership. Frantic efforts are being made to halt the spread of a malignant entity into the body politic there, to restore order, and to deal with the inevitable slide into the unthinkable. The ill-considered and haphazard actions clearly show the fear that has gripped the leadership, as more things are rushed into play without proper consideration.

Yes, there can be little doubt that Saddam and those loyal to him are indeed desperate. While their actions hurt, for every life lost does do so, the pattern of the actions and the locations of the actions tell a very revealing story. They tell of weakness, despair, and a serious misunderstanding of history. They also tell of a new history being made.

The malignant enemy they face is hope, which the majority of the people in Iraq are experiencing for the first time in many years. Even by some of the most biased of reports, the general infrastructure is the best it has been in decades. Electricity has been restored, and has been taken to new areas or to areas that long ago lost it courtesy of Saddam. Water, sewage treatment, and other services are also reported to be at, or well beyond, pre-war levels. Some of this is even true in the Triangle, where sabotage and other problems are common.

Worse yet, the people are discovering that they have power. They have the right to an opinion, to express those opinions, and that they are in control of their destiny. Politics is flourishing, and the populace is discovering that that local political machines are not tanks. Women are discovering rights as well, and are starting to get blessedly uppity in terms of the previous regime.

The economy is still bad, but even at its worst most people are apparently far better off than they were under the old regime. Free markets are flourishing, and once some of the problems of pay and jobs are addressed, things will only continue to improve. Even better will be the repudiation of most of the debts owed, such as those to France. France should remember what happened the last time it insisted on the repayment of onerous debts, especially since it involved their close friend and ally Germany marching through the streets of Paris. Indeed, one wonders if some of the insistence by France and others on the repayment of debts is not designed to breed the very problems created last time.

None of this is good news for the old regime and those outside forces who support it.

The great hope they have is that America will, once again, cut and run; abandoning solemn promises and betraying the people of Iraq once again. In the turmoil that would be the result, they can and would move to re-establish control and resume what they were doing.

They have studied America and how we operate, and they have decided to take a playbook straight out of the worst of our past. They see the Old Media reading from the Vietnam playbook and seek to exploit that to the fullest extent possible. They seek to play the quagmire card for all it is worth, and hope and pray that the Old Media will respond in the same old way, make the same old mistakes and misunderstandings, and help them along. Indeed, I would say that this is having considerable success, and that the Old Media is not just being duped, but is in many respects actively aiding and abetting in this effort for partisan reasons of their own.

They have seen America cut and run too many times. We cut and ran from Lebanon after the Marine barracks bombing there. We cut and run from Somalia after we ran into trouble there. We have cut and run too many times in too many areas for them to believe that we will not do so now.

Yet, they are missing an important point. The Old Media is not America, and it no longer has the influence it used to have. Soldiers and military leadership are not stupid, and have seen (and often knew at the time) that cutting and running is almost never a good option. They fail to understand that America has changed, courtesy of them and their actions.

The Old Media is still strong, but it is starting to wane. The New Media, of which the Blogosphere is the lead, is challenging them and worse yet – from the view of the Old – putting out facts and exposing the ignorance and lies in their coverage. This is starting to weigh in public opinion and while the big lie can and does work, it is no longer the only game in town. Can the big lie still win? Yes, through saturation and the use of all media channels, such as the entertainment arms of the Old Media, it can. Can it be fought? Yes, through the many channels of the New Media.

The Old Media has been caught out by ignorance and bigotry before. Tet is a great example, where a military victory was turned into a propaganda defeat by the Old Media. Most of this was sheer ignorance of the military and military operations, and this willful ignorance continues to this day (see previous posts on military and the media). Yet, at the same time you have the blogs and you have the embeds, who now have firsthand knowledge of what things are like and how they work. Note also that most of them at the Old Media are now no longer reporting on military matters or on Iraq for that matter. It is the old Caravel Bar, excuse me, the Hotel Crowd that did not have that experience that are once again leading the charge. This fact is not lost on a growing number of the general public.

Soldiers and military leadership have learned as well, and are sharing those lessons with the political leadership. They know the true cost of cutting and running, and they are also very well aware that the problems in Somalia did not really start until the Rules of Engagement changed. You see, before we responded to any incident with overwhelming force, and that kept things in check. Once we stopped doing that was when we had outsiders come in, and locals feel that they could get away with hurting us. Once we had a public black eye, we ran. The soldiers learned, and good politicians have learned as well.

Saddam failed to learn, and as a result he reaped a lesson that our soldiers had previously learned. We studied the battlefields of the world, we studied what had worked and what had not worked before. We learned from our defeats as well as our victories, and the result was the fastest campaign in history. Some of the problems we now face may be a result of it working too well, because the follow-on troops could not keep up and secure all the arms depots and the like as fast as should have been done. More troops may not have been the answer, because the logistics could not keep up.

Most of all, they fail to realize that America has changed. On 9-11, we were attacked in a way we have never been attacked before. Prior to that, the only attacks against the continental U.S. were some balloon bombs from Japan and some extremely ineffectual shelling by some German submarines. No foreign enemy has ever successfully mounted a realistic attack on us. The American public was shocked, but it was also exceedingly unamused. The underlying public opinion was and still is “Never Again.”

America understands somewhere deep inside, that what happens in Iraq is crucial to the War on Terrorism. So does Saddam and all those who are flocking in from elsewhere to fight us there. The idea is that they can give us a black eye, sap our will, and make us cut and run. They are convinced that we will do nothing else, and they are very much hoping that the loss of the Chinook will be the Blackhawk Down, Marine Barracks, or Tet of this war.

They are, I hope, wrong. While the administration can’t come out and admit it, because we would not want to stop the flow, the influx of outside fighters into Iraq is good for us. They are coming out, standing up, and being removed. While they are there, they can’t be causing problems elsewhere and they are tying up critical logistics and supply as well. Flypaper works, but it works only for as long as the flies don’t catch on. Some reporters know this very well, and are – I think – using it shamelessly to attack the administration knowing the administration can’t and won’t respond. This is despicable.

The point is also being missed that these are signs of desperation. Do you really think that if they had large quantities of these weapons, that more would not have been used and the use started sooner? If they had anything other than improvised munitions, don’t you think they would be used? Where they are getting supplies and support is also a very good question, and the more improvised they use, the more forensics evidence we get.

The attacks themselves show the desperation in another way. Look at the targets. The UN and the UN-affiliated agencies are well known for cutting and running at the first sign of trouble. Just look at operations in Afghanistan, where they button up if someone so much as sneezes near them. The International Red Cross is somewhat better, but still does not have a great track record. Other organizations are the same way. If you get them to quit, then you stop the malignant growth of infrastructure, economy, and health that is infecting the populace. No real surprise there, but the fact that they are having to work so hard to stop this is not a sign of strength on their part.

Make no mistake, they can and will hurt us every chance and in everyway they can. The showier the better for propaganda purposes. With support from the Old Media, they can wage a propaganda and psychological war that they hope and pray will make us once again cut and run. Meantime, the fact that no serious military resistance is underway goes unreported, as does most of the realities of life in modern Iraq.

Expect more of this in the days ahead, but remember that it is a sign of weakness, and nothing else. If they were strong, there would be a real resistance and it would be a heck of a lot more than a few showy bombs and isolated ground-to-air attacks. It will not be fun, and it will not be pretty. Yet, if we stay the course and do not cut and run, the victory will not just be ours, but it will be that of the Iraqi people and all the people in that region when they see what is built.

That is the thought that drives the enemy mad. For they see it being done before their eyes, and they are most afraid that they can not stop it. Nor can they. The only ones who can stop it are us, through failure of will and of courage. We must not betray the people of Iraq, or the world, that way again. We must not give them that victory.

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