The Laughing Wolf

The Surest Sign Yet

When the next terrorist attack occurs in the United States, the immediate cry by many is going to be that the war on terror is failing. Our leadership has failed in that war, in protecting us, and in doing something in general. Indeed, our enemy is counting on partisan politics and the desire for gain and power to override loyalty, common sense, and more, so that they will gain what they want. Yet, it is important to remember that the next attack on and in America will not be a sign of strength, but a sign of the desperation that grips our enemy.

That they must attack, soon and in a spectacular fashion, is a given. There are many reasons for this, and it behooves us to consider the facts before such an attack occurs.

First, Al Qaeda and all the related organizations under its umbrella are in disarray. They have lost much prestige in the world because of this fact. Their leadership dares not leave its strongholds in southern Afghanistan and neighboring areas of Pakistan. They are hunted, harassed, and have to take a great many precautions against coalition troops and fellow countrymen who have decided to hunt them. Relieving that pressure is a crucial need.

Second, the fact has been noticed that since 9-11 they have been unable to mount any large-scale successful operation within the United States or against any significant Coalition asset. What have they done? A few small-scale bombings in Saudi? Hardly the work of a major organization, even if those were intended to advance their plan there (elimination of current leadership and the creation of a new state with them in control). These bombings also had the effect of waking up some people in Saudi and the region, which has further hurt the cause.

Third, sending in fighters from all over the world into Iraq to lead the heroic resistance has played right into the plans of the Coalition. Those fighters are being sucked in from other areas, including Europe and, more importantly, Afghanistan. While in Iraq they can’t be disrupting the creation of the new government in Afghanistan or causing trouble in Europe or elsewhere. Add to that the growing number of these who are captured or killed, and it does create a growing kink in the system for the enemy.

Fourth, the network that has backed them has taken heavy hits. The Taliban is gone as an effective government, and is left as a shadow group that can’t even fully control its historic territory. Saddam is gone, and now being displayed on television for all the world to see. Iran is facing growing problems at home and not even the most Chamberlin-esque internationalist can seriously promote them as peaceful, misunderstood, or helpful types in international forums. Libya and the colonel have just left the cause of the righteous, and in the process derailed WMD plans the world over, not to mention creating a lot of other collateral damage in other areas. The Philippines has gotten serious and effective about combating the Moro Liberation Front and affiliated groups, courtesy of the United States and other allies. Australia is helping its neighbors in similar fights, further increasing the pressure on the affiliated organizations and tying up their resources.

So, times are tough and that is a good thing, right? Well, yes, it is. Yet, it also brings about the almost surety of a new and spectacular attack. The credibility of these organizations, and the movement they represent, is at stake. They need a victory right now, to rally the troops and supporters. They need to show their backers/masters that they are still in the fight, that they can do damage to the enemy and not simply bring the sleeping giant they awakened down upon the heads of said masters/backers.

About the only option left to them is an attack or attacks on the United States or members of the Coalition of the willing. America is the primary target, simply because without it the Coalition is likely to fall apart – at least in their estimation. America has been the driving force in terms of will, money, supplies, training, and people. They also still see Americans as week, self-centered, greedy, and spineless, who without strong leadership lack the will to fight even in self-defense. I think they underestimate individual Americans a great deal, though they may be right about more of our politicians than I care to admit.

What this means is that they need something big. They need something to happen that will damage our morale and our economy, and in the process bring about a change in political leadership. The enemy believes that any other leadership is better for them than what we have, and that such an attack will bring into power people that will not oppose them, or do so effectively. They are counting on the loyal opposition to be less than loyal, and to put politics and self-gain ahead of the country. They are counting on each of us to allow that to happen.

The latter is not surprising. The concept of a Republic and responsible citizenry is foreign to them. They see our population as sheep, and honestly believe that the politicians control and direct the public, and that the public will simply accept whatever happens. They see the Old Media pushing agendas, without realizing that the Old Media does not really represent, or even inform, the majority of Citizens. It is a miscalculation that will hurt them.

So, they will do more attacks. They will try for the showiest thing they can within the United States, and will use every last resource they have so that it appears they are far more powerful and capable than they are. The showier the attack, the more likely it is that they have shot their bolt in that area.

They are also likely to do attacks against England, Spain, Poland, and other members of the Coalition. They are going to pick their targets in the Coalition based on their assessment of the likelihood of said attack resulting in change of political leadership. England is ripe for this, not merely because it has been one of the staunchest allies in the fight, but because Tony Blair faces tough opposition at home. They see the polls saying the public does not support his joining the fight by a substantial margin, and they see how embattled Mr. Blair is on this and other issues. Therefore, they reason that if they can strike a blow that it will topple him and bring in an appeaser. Spain is in a similar position, as is Australia. Such attacks may well work, at least in the short term.

There is also one other thing to consider here. The showier the attack, the more likely it is to get the citizens of the attacked countries mad. A showy attack may well raise the ire of the public, and drive home the point that this is a war to the death. That to loose is to turn our backs on centuries of progress and enlightenment. Things could go either way in terms of this.

The fact remains, however, that the umbrella of organizations that is Al Qaeda must do something soon. They have to pull off the showiest thing they possibly can in order to regain and demonstrate any credibility to the world and to existing and potential members. A failure to do this will ensure their demise from within and without. Yet, to make such an attack will also be the surest sign of their desperation, and the extent to which they have been hurt.

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