The Laughing Wolf

Safe Enough In A Zero Defect Space

Rand Simburg has put up a very good article that makes some very good points. Unlike him, however, I am not surprised that NASA is going to take longer to return to flight. In fact, I will be surprised in some ways if they make the new target date as I had no expectations of them meeting the previous target dates.

The problem truly is that NASA has become a zero defect zone. I’ve written about this before, but in almost every way the goal has been to eliminate any defect or potential for criticism. It is not truly safety, and it is not taking humanity to the stars, and it is not even reaching low orbit. The unofficial goal has been to do whatever it took to avoid criticism.

This was a top-down thing implemented in the Goldin years, where one did everything possible to avoid the wrath of Dan. If anything you did created any controversy, or just plain hit him wrong, the consequences could be and were catastrophic for career or job. NASA was concerned that criticism would translate to lack of Congressional support, and that would in turn translate into even more funding cuts. Given that the administrator was all but challenging the administration to give even more budget cuts to the agency, this was a real concern.

The real translation problem, however, was in how this translated inside the agency. Safety First rapidly became something else. It became a call to eliminate all accidents, injury, and “goofs.” This, in turn, led to not doing anything that could cause these or could be perceived or presented as any sort of failure. Which, in turn, led to a zero defect environment in which the true message of safety was lost. When you issue first aid kits without band aids and such in them because it is contra safety policy, you have lost all touch with reality.

The net result was an environment were delay or checking was bad, because that was a failure. It was/is an environment where subordinates don’t always give managers the information that is needed out of fear, or a desire to suppress anything that might be even slightly negative. It was/is an environment where managers don’t ask questions, because they really don’t want to know the answers.

NASA has re-embraced the zero defect/perfect safety meme in a new way. The net result is that launches may not resume even next year under this policy. While NASA is being pushed to launch sooner, they have the perfect excuse not to launch and I would be surprised if they did not take it. Make more modifications to the orbiter, make elaborate and costly – and likely ineffective – backup plans, and do everything possible to make launches/missions accident proof.

The problem is, there is no such thing as perfect safety. There is no such thing as zero defects. In point of fact, there is a good deal of evidence that zero defect environments are self-defeating. They tend to create larger problems when they do happen, and create a stagnant environment mired in the past, with no growth, and no hope for the future. The net result in any sort of free market is that competition comes along, innovates, and takes over the market.

In this case, this is not a bad thing. NASA has introduced no new launch vehicles, or even significantly new technology, since before the Shuttle was rolled out. Note that I am talking launch technology here, because there have been some pretty neat things happening with spacecraft and probe systems, and some of the advanced propulsion is most interesting. But, we have to get to orbit. NASA has produced a lot of paper, voluminous charts and briefings, and no new systems for quite some time.

This means that the time is ripe for those wanting commercial launch and innovative launch technologies. The new space policy seems to set a good stage for this, and one can only hope that the White House will be remotely friendly towards an improved regulatory environment. Because if we want to get to the stars, we first have to get to orbit. NASA is already stagnant in this area, and the doors of competition have been opened. Let’s see how a stagnant zero defect environment does against some unfettered competition. Let the games begin.

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