The Laughing Wolf

Hurricane Katrina: Some Thoughts On Preparedness

Following up on some e-mail and phone calls, some thoughts to throw out to the wind:

1. They waited way too late to order the evacuation of New Orleans. Yesterday probably would have been too late. Even with converting most inbound lanes into outbound; surging all available rolling rail stock (passenger cars and freight cars, as you can get a LOT of people out as freight); using river craft; and, surging all possible aircraft, there is no way to move even what I consider a reasonable fraction of the population out. At a minimum, if you want to get anywhere near half out, they should have started yesterday if not the day before. If the evacuation is any indication of the rest of their plans, they have indeed squandered the year...

2. Politicians rarely do realistic or effective disaster preparedness planning, unless their feet are held to the fire. In areas where things are once very ten years or so, there are far more pressing needs, like funding things that will keep them in power rather than things that might keep those same constituents alive in an emergency. Far better to fund something frivolous and expensive that provides some feel-good now, than to pour money into something that might or might not be useful during any given term in office. Feh. Not saying that is the case here, just noting a fact of life that you might want to keep in mind and discuss (forcefully even) with your local politicians/civil-master-wannabes...

3. Yes, the Dome was built to withstand Cat 5: around 1970. The plans were drawn up then, ground breaking was on Aug. 11, 1971, and it formally opened on August 3, 1975. At the best, 30 years ago, but more likely the design was done to codes and knowledge 35-plus years ago. We know a lot more now about the forces in a storm, materials have changed, and more importantly methods have changed. Given those changes, and the wear and tear on the structure, I agree with a friend who said that if they were in NO right now, they might just go home rather than into the Dome as they would rather die there than trapped in what remains of the Dome. I would be concerned, but feel a lot better, if this were a category IV instead of a V. It is also something of a bowl within a bowl, which could make flooding really interesting. At this point, any reasonably significant breach in the structure that provides an opening for wind and water could have catastrophic results.

4. The best-case scenario I can see right now is for a direct hit by the eye. It will keep the worst of the winds off the city, and give at least some opportunity to deal with things. The super-best-case is for the storm to weaken significantly before landfall, and hit at low tide, and then have the eye go directly over.

5. The worst case is for things to go as anticipated and to have a near miss, with the absolute worst case is to have the eye pass just to one side so that the city and the lake get that worst quadrant fun. Worst and strongest winds, no respite, massive rain -- the recipe for disaster on a scale not seen in the U.S. in modern times.

6. As previously stated in a comment, I will be very happy if things remain as currently projected and we get out with less than 20,000 dead. If we get towards 1,000 dead, I will do a happy dance at so few being killed. Again, if all remains as projected and there is no significant weakening, extreme rough-order-calculations give me a range of 20,000 to 100,000 casualties, with a plus or minus in excess of 50 percent. Fact is, I have insufficient data and too much depends on fate. If the Dome goes, high-end is a given. Water over the dike is bad, but not nearly as bad as if one or more dikes go -- and the order in which things go, and where they go first, is going to be a critical factor. Extra pumps, emergency dikes, emergency diversions, and more could make a difference in the totals. Right now, the odds are that the totals will be high no matter what, but when something like this happens you take whatever silver linings and breaks come your way, and even as you mourn your losses you count your blessings that it was not worse, for it can always be worse.

7. All the stay-and-survive preparations you could possibly make are useless in these circumstances. This is the time to use the emergency bug-out plans and preparations; actually, yesterday was the better time for that.

8. Pray, meditate, think, cast spells, whatever you do -- just do it. Let that which is right be, and please oh please let it be so much better than things look to be now.

LW