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August 31, 2003
Stay Tuned
Regular posting resumes soon...
LW August 30, 2003
Sorry, No Way Today
On several fronts. It is 0130 local time and I have to be up at about 0630, and work all day. So no Way of the Wolf today, but I will try to make it up to you soon.
There is some news to share, but that too will wait. :)
Meantime, all of you be safe, have fun, and enjoy the holiday weekend!
LW August 29, 2003
A Fundamental Flaw
Rand Simburg points out a fundamental flaw in some of the thinking behind parts of the CAIB report and what is reportedly being planned at the White House. The fact is, everyone is still thinking as if NASA is the only group interested in, or will be doing, manned launches. This sort of blinkered thought is a LARGE part of the problem. Go read what he says, both at his site and elsewhere, and chew on some very good food for thought.
LW
Reader Query: Layout/Design Software
Anyone out there have any experience with Adobe InDesign? If so, how does it compare to PageMaker, Quark, and similar programs? My old OS9 PageMaker is kaput along with OS9, so I am looking to get some new software, pref. something that will open PageMaker documents. Any thoughts or suggestions?
LW
Slow Time
Not much time to do much today, my apologies. There is a lot going on, so check the news, tune in Winds of Change and keep informed.
The good news is that I have turned in a story on wheelock firearms to a magazine, am now gearing up to do a number of encyclopedia entries, and will be working all weekend at the restaurant.
Take care, enjoy the weekend, and be safe.
LW August 28, 2003
What Should A Space Agency Do?
To continue the discussion, what should a good space agency do? What are the essential functions of an agency that is supposed to foster the development of aviation and space? Particularly commercial aviation and space, as the NASA charter – along with various commercial space acts – calls for?
howl on, brother! »NASA is an easy target right now, but a few more comments are called for simply to finish laying some groundwork. As noted previously, NASA has become insular instead of diverse. This very much applies to developing new launch technologies. Check the record and you will find the same gang pursuing the same goals for some time. You may also note that the extent of industry involvement is almost entirely limited to that same gang, with the occasional exception of a different satellite company who may be asked to provide specs for payload considerations.
This is great if you are going to continue with Big Dumb Boosters, essentially ICBMS writ large if not simply converted ICBMs. It does little to promote the development of truly novel technologies, since none of the private space developers, be they launch or any other service, are consulted. If you can provide me with details of anyone at NASA going to Roton, X-COR, or Burt Rutan and asking them for their needs and inputs, it will be the first time that I know of it being done on a serious basis.
So, accepting that some form of government agency is needed to push the frontiers for reasons political, power, and pork, what should it be doing?
The list that I have come up with is fairly short and sweet: launch/propulsion technology; essential fundamental science; altruistic space exploration. These are the areas where government involvement could be argued to be essential. These are also things that NASA has been tasked to do, with very mixed results and a disconnect from the real world. How then could this be accomplished without running into some of the same problems?
Part of the answer lies with the founding fathers, who went with checks and balances. Would that all government agencies were forced to have them. In this case, the checks and balances should be tied to private enterprise and measured results. The latter may take a special exemption from the civil service acts, but it would not be the first time that was done.
The best way to start is with an agency that is specifically limited in what it can do. Part of the reason for the problems with NASA are the field centers that continue to expand – often to the detriment of the organization – and continually try to be the tail wagging the dog. By eliminating “centerism” at the start many problems can be avoided.
The other way to limit is to provide a focus, a concrete mission that is not open-ended. The best way to do this is to tie research and development to specific goals, preferably those established by industry. If this organization is to be truly useful, it needs to really produce results, not papers and reports. So, if a company has a materials problem, a propulsion problem, or some other technology problem, this could be the place for a research partnership to solve it. The company gets what it needs to advance, the agency does research and work tied to a tangible and measurable objective, and everyone benefits.
Exploration does need to be a part of this, but that does not mean that everything has to be done in-house. One of the early strengths of NASA was collaboration, bringing in academia and industry to address issues and get results right then, not 15 years later. This can be the case again. Exploration can become a multi-talented regime, and this can also be applied to research avenues as well. Wherever possible, commercial hardware, launch systems, and other resources can be used.
Where specialized systems are needed, then they can be built in-house or in collaboration with others who have related expertise. Everything that goes up does not have to be government issue. Let it be government issue where truly appropriate, but let it be privately developed or from a university where appropriate as well.
The organization should not have a monopoly on launch vehicles, services, sites, or manned exploration. An astronaut is anyone who has been in space, not a career civil servant.
This deserves more thought and flesh, but I am going to stop tonight so I can get a good night’s sleep before the next round of sleep depravation. What are your thoughts on this? What do you think a true aerospace agency should do? Should not do? What checks and balances should be in place? I have my ideas, but cross-pollination works here as well. Come on, make some comments and leave some ideas. Let’s see if we can come up with something that will fly.
-30- « ...howl's doneAugust 27, 2003
Instapundit = Gary The Rat?
Okay, I come home the other night and am getting to watch the late rerun of Gary the Rat on Spike. One advantage to working at the restaurant is coming home late and seeing all the shows that are normally on well past my bedtime.
Now, I admit that working two full-time jobs has been a bit stressful, and that working in a hot kitchen during a heat wave, sometimes in front of a red hot grill, has added to it. So, my mind was wandering strange and interesting paths late at night. Strange enough that I began to consider that Gary the Rat might be some form of alliteration of Glenn Reynolds. I could even sworn that I heard Gary say "Heh" once, but at that point in my sleep depravation cycle it could have been the bedside lamp. Still, I wonder, could it be? Could the Instapundit be an inspiration for Gary the Rat? Only time will tell...
LW
Proof? Or another sleep depravation nightmare?
Models and Goals In Space
Rand Simburg touches on some very good points in regards space programs. He correctly points out that our own program is very much wedded to a 1950s/60s model that is largely no longer relevant. He also points out that there has been a critical failure in discussion of what we want to do in space. howl on, brother! »In my post of Sunday, I primarily touched on why I think that something very drastic needs to be done. From past experience, it is clear that the culture at NASA is not going to change, at least not short of force majeure. I say this with great confidence both as a student of history and from my own experiences inside the beast. Window dressing is easy, and most of the so-called safety programs, quality programs, and related programs have been just that.
Since I think that this needs to be discussed in some detail, Sunday’s post was merely the start of the process. Not even a Den Bestian length post will do, since I think that it will take many such posts to lay out the various ideas and possibilities. To my mind, there is no better place to start than in the goals and models being used.
Why are we going to space?
This is the single most important question that needs to be asked, and the one almost never touched by partisans of any persuasion. The model we use now, pointed out so well by Rand, boils down in many respects to national pride. Both the U.S. and the USSR were in it for pride, for prestige, and for the military advantages that space provided.
That drive still manifests itself in almost every aspect of what we do in space. The shuttle is a potent symbol of American technological supremacy, and is flaunted as such. The Soviet Buran was intended as such, but its one and only flight resulted in its being dismissed. NASA funds a large amount of fundamental research in space, and touts the results as often as possible. While many of the results are ridiculed within the science community, it also needs to be noted that the most frequent critics are also those who are opposed to space, particularly to manned space efforts. That can, and often should, be put down to power and money plays, since many of the critics will condemn and in the same breath say that they should get the money for their research. Regardless, space-based research is a means of showing the flag and securing the program.
The problem is that this model simply does not make sense, and has not for some time. It is great for flag waving and for bureaucratic empire building, but nothing else. Accepting the premises of the posts by Rand and others on this subject, the question then becomes what do we want to do in space? Only when we have answered this question can be begin to select realistic, effective, and appropriate models for our endeavors. Only then, can we decide the best way to either restructure or replace NASA. Only then, can we determine appropriate regulatory environments for commercial activities.
So, why are we going to space and what do we want to do there?
The immediate response from many will be exploration, though sheer curiosity is the more honest answer. We want to know what is out there, how do things work in different locations and environments, from microgravity to various planetary environments. We want to find various limits, push them, and if possible push past them.
The second answer appears to be technological development. Launch systems are just a start, since many have pointed out the broad range of technology advancement that came from Apollo and the drive to the moon. Indeed, the computer revolution that has changed our lives owes its genesis to the race for space. Many in the development camp point out the potential in regards nanotechnology, biotechnology, and other ologies yet to be determined.
The third answer is settlement. Earth is the cradle of civilization, yet we cannot stay in the cradle forever. Various factions hold that it is a safety valve for overpopulation, a way of ensuring the survival of mankind, a way to deal with extremists by either sending them out or allowing the sane to escape the madhouse, a way of allowing wide scale social experimentation and engineering in isolated habitats, and a variety of other possibilities.
The fourth answer appears to be exploitation, the development of non-terrestrial resources. By making use of space-based resources, we can reduce, eliminate, or reverse ecological damage here; improve the quality of life; and bring in a new era of plenty for all.
There are others, of course, but these serve as a good start for our discussions. Let’s take a look at them and some of the assumptions that lie behind them.
Exploration is a wonderful thing, often as fun as it is dangerous. There have always been those with a drive to go see what is over the next mountain, at the bottom of the gorge, or beyond the edge of the horizon. Some have gone and explored all on their own, but over the years it became necessary to seek backing for such ventures since ships and supplies cost money. Before the full rise of the merchant class, the main source of such funds was from governments, who were looking for new territories and new sources of revenue. It was not altruism that caused Isabella to hock her jewels to fund Chris, but the possibility of gain for Spain.
In the past, companies have also funded research expeditions. Such funding, like that by Subaru today, gains the companies exposure/advertising and can gain them a direct return from what is found, be it material or intellectual treasure. Two separate things have severely restricted this. The first are the changes in the investment and regulatory environments. Whereas in the past companies were willing to invest in long-term research and goals, the rule today is short term gain and profit. This is encouraged by the regulatory environment as well as a large change in the makeup of the investment market. The second is that the government stepped in after WWII and began funding a variety of research programs.
The argument used for the latter was that no one company could afford to do the job, and that no consortium of companies would ever be formed to do it. The primary driver for this was the development by Germany of the jet engine and other advanced research being done. The jet had been largely ignored in the U.S., as had the work of Goddard in rocketry. The profits were quite nice as they were, thank you, and business had not pursued these avenues. Realizing that other countries could surprise us in the same way, the government began funding major science research.
This included aviation and space. NACA became NASA, and NASA has continued to grow. While aviation is definitely the little A in the name, other research had grown tremendously. From initial research into propulsion, materials, and such, NASA has expanded into fundamental research in all scientific disciplines. The basic argument remains that only the government can afford to do this, or is willing to do this. Yet, as shown by Subaru and other companies, this is not entirely true.
This also affects the technology development issue. Again, it is oft argued that it takes a huge government program to create the technology push. Without Apollo and the manned space program there would be no computer revolution. The fallacies in this argument are readily apparent, but it is still made and it is still accepted as gospel by many.
To my mind, one of the largest problems is the difference between the program then and now. Others have pointed out that during the moon race, NASA went and recruited the best and brightest from industry. In other words, these people had real-world experience and this was brought to bear on the problem. Where pure research was needed, they brought in help from academia. That does indeed need to be contrasted to today’s program where the majority of people at NASA have only worked at NASA, and may have even done their education through NASA.
With this, NASA has lost not only the external viewpoint and fertilization of new ideas, but the very diversity of ideas that allowed it to be so flexible in its heyday. Without this, how can even a new major program spur the technology development that we need?
The settlement idea is nice, but is not even the slightest blip on the government radar screen. If you can show a government, any government, how such can expand their territory or resource base, then you might start to get Isabella interested again. Until then, forget it. Settlement will require reliable launch, a good infrastructure, some serious financial backing, people willing to take a chance, and a suitable regulatory environment.
That brings us to the resource utilization concept. Even the most extreme supporter of government involvement will state that this really is a job for private industry. The problem is, that private industry has no way to get there. Given the cost of going through NASA, the NASA paperwork, and the regulatory environment and lack thereof, none are particularly interested. Until this changes, private industry is not going to be willing to consider the idea on any substantive level.
For the sake of argument, I am going to put forward the following ideas of what I want to do and how I think we can best get there from here. To follow-up on another comment from Rand, I agree that the political environment is such that doing away with NASA is not a politically feasible thing to do right now. Had the CAIB report and other things that were percolating in the background prior to Columbia been handled differently, it could have been a slam dunk. With the current lionizing of NASA, and NASA wisely placing its rear end in the laurels of past achievements – most notably Apollo – I think that it will be hard going. It may still be done, but I doubt it.
Even so, I plan to put forward here the seeds of what I think a new organization. This will get fleshed out a bit more in the days ahead, but for now just a bit more of a start.
It is my belief that we should be going to space to do all the things listed above. I do not, however, believe that most of them should be done by or through the government. My proposal is as follows.
First, I do not accept the idea that fundamental research can only be done or funded by the government. What I do accept, however, is that political realities dictate that some sort of push back the frontiers work will have to be done by a government agency for reasons of prerogative, power, and pork. In the days ahead, I plan to outline what I think such an agency should do, should not do, and how it can also harness the power that was behind much of NASA’s real successes – namely the power of business and ideological diversity.
Second, I think most of the rest can and should be done by private industry. What is needed here is a realistic regulatory environment, and a government that will enable and encourage instead of doing everything in its power to stifle. Also in the days ahead I intend to describe a framework, a model for how this can be done.
Third, I want to encourage others to take up this challenge. Don’t just write comments to posts, write major posts yourself on your site or submit same to sites such as mine, Winds of Change, or others. The more ideas, the more models put forward, the better the chance of coming up with an integrated whole that not merely makes sense, but will make good policy as well.
It is your space program, it is your future. It is up to you.
-30- « ...howl's doneAugust 26, 2003
Mars
It has been big and bright in the sky of late, but tomorrow night will mark its closest approach to Earth in quite some time, some 60,000 years to be exact. This is a great chance to go see a truly beautiful sight, and if you have kids, a great time for some fun astronomy lessons. Local observatories, amateur astronomers, and others will be hosting events. Take the time and go do some of them, for there will never be another chance like this in our lifetimes.
LW
CAIB Report Released
It can be downloaded here. Given what passes for impartial media, I think it may well be a very good idea to go read it for ourselves, and see what WE think it says.
LW August 25, 2003
Welcome Home, Lt. Smash
Glad to have you back, safe and sound.
LW
Yet More On Space, Commercialization, and NASA
The Blogfather is very good at what he does. Over at his site, he has pulled together posts from several sites that provide a great deal of context, thought, and suggestions.
Lite day today, but there will be more soon on space, models, and states rights. Just as soon as I get the time...
LW August 24, 2003
A Time For Everything
The report of the Columbia investigation board is coming out, and it will not be pretty. There will be failures noted, problems discovered, and solutions recommended. Many of these recommendations will be sweeping and profound, but the fact is that they may not go far enough.
Like many space enthusiasts in this country, I was raised on a double standard. On the one hand, we had the works of the man who literally sold the moon, Robert Heinlein, with his free-enterprise business-oriented model that paralleled the development of aviation. Results came quickly, innovation was the rule, and while accidents happened, they were not the end of the world. On the other, we had the square-jawed can-do of the government run NASA. Progress was both rapid, when looked at objectively, and slow in terms of true innovation and all the other wonderful things that competition brings.
howl on, brother! »That I was biased towards NASA was a given, in that a cousin who I much admired worked for them. In fact, he had been recruited out of college by von Braun and worked as a part of his team. He slipped me things along the way, from NASA books and photos, to information that helped with a school project or two. I felt that there was nothing that the team could not do, that NASA would not find a way around.
Yet NASA does not live in isolation. While there is indeed a bureaucratic and moribund culture at NASA, it exists because of the neglect and misuse of the agency by Congress, the White House, and us: the public. It is our agency, and we have largely ignored it. Congress regularly uses the NASA budget for pork, for a political football, and much needed publicity. The White House has in many years ignored it, or used it for its own purposes, such as the Clinton administration’s using the agency to send money to the Russians that could not be sent any other way. Both the executive and legislative branches have also used any problem or failure of any size as an excuse to castigate, pontificate, and otherwise gain media time decrying the current inexcusable failure. The public has hardly been better, often being incited by politicians, the media, or special interest groups to call for torches, tar, and feathers over the most ridiculous of things.
This use and abuse by all sides has contributed to a cautious, timid, and don’t-rock-the-boat culture in the agency. In an agency that is supposed to push the boundaries, develop new technologies, take us to the stars. This is a process where failure is often more important that success, for it is from failures of things that we learn what doesn’t work or doesn’t work as planned. It means doing and saying things that might upset some people, for controversy over ideas is nothing new. Yet, because of the culture that is Washington, it is an agency that is scared to try almost anything new and innovative, from getting out news about science to simply getting into space.
The fact is, however, that NASA truly has gone from a fairly lean can-do agency into a bureaucracy where career maintenance and growing the budget is far more important than doing the job. Personal and program power are driving factors, as is the push to grow Centers and Center budgets no matter what it may do to the official goals of the agency or other parts of same. It is an agency that is very protective of what it regards as its turf, from launch services to science.
The best and the brightest are still drawn to NASA, and I have been privileged to work with a number of people who fall in this category. I have seen them struggle to do the right thing, to make the system work despite itself. And, I have seen the face of the enemy, those who are wedded to a system, the book, or their own personal agendas rather than to the dream and the stated goals of the agency.
The former are, in my opinion, the minority at NASA. NASA has become a moribund culture where any advancement takes not just years, but decades. Technology development is slowed to a crawl, and now almost always features the same people, the same companies, and the same basic ideas. Tremendous amounts of paper are generated, but little else. If you don’t think this is true, take a look at NASA’s efforts to develop a new launch system, and advance the technology to get us into orbit. Look at how many names the program has had, how much paper has been generated, and how little metal has actually been cut. Look very hard at how when failure was hit on some of the technology advances, work stopped and paper took over.
At the same time, NASA has not exactly been a friend to commercial space enterprises. This is particularly true for efforts to develop alternative manned space access. NASA has a great deal invested in being the only way to get people into space, from hardware and infrastructure to an internal culture that claims that only career NASA civil servants can be called astronauts. All those others who fly, or meet the international guidelines for being called such, can not be called such in any NASA publication.
NASA has for years tried to block the development of manned commercial access. Just take a look at the regulatory environment for such and NASA’s role in it. NASA has bitterly resisted any suggestion that any other launch service be used, unless it was completely under their control. There are many other examples, for those who care to go do the homework and look them up.
It’s official support of commercial activities has been limited. Despite various actions by Congress and its own charter, the agency has not been supportive of commercial research and development. Just go take a look at the history of the Space Product Development Program, which has managed to do some very important and good things with industry, for a good example. Take a good look at the so-called commercialization efforts of Dan Tam, or the idea that Headquarters had that companies would pay for large portions of the ISS without being able to display logos or use their sponsorship in advertising. Those ideas were patently ridiculous, obvious to anyone who had any real-world experience, and beloved by top NASA management who should have known better.
The fact is, the current administration has known that NASA has severe problems for some time. The rumor and speculation was that the current Administrator, Sean O’Keefe, was being sent in with a mission. That he was going to give NASA a specific period of time in which to voluntarily fix a number of problems. If that was not done, and I think most observers will agree that it has not taken place, then he was to take more draconian action. Columbia happened just before many suspected that the draconian was to take place. No agency is going to undertake major reorganization and reform under such circumstances, especially when there might be an outside vehicle that could be “blamed” for such changes.
Over the last several years, I have talked with people inside and outside of NASA. These are people who have looked at the programs, the “culture” of NASA and Washington, and where America needs to go, which is into space in a big way. The economic and technical benefits of doing so are more than obvious, they are very well documented in many outside studies. When one looks at the advancements that came out of the early days of NASA, the impact is positively staggering. The modern computer revolution can be easily traced back to Mercury and the earliest programs. There are many more examples that are left as exercises for the student.
We need that driver again. We need to seed the technologies that will drive not just our future, but those of our children. We need the resources of space, from vacuum to raw materials, from energy to the security that can be obtained there. Not just secure locations for critical research or intelligence, but the security that comes from not having all of humanities eggs in one basket.
The problem with truly trying to change a culture from within are the various civil service acts. Even in the face of gross incompetence or just plain laziness, it is effectively impossible to fire a civil servant. Add in unions for lower-ranking workers, and it gets even more interesting. While a directive to reorganize can come down from above, every effort will be made to find people a job elsewhere, meaning that the actual number of people does not significantly change. This is a reason that NASA years ago cut its own throat via brain drain by “encouraging” early retirements and did engage in some reductions in force. The fact is, however, that many of those people came right back as contractor employees.
NASA, and various administrations, have tried the usual tactics for change. These have not been effective. What is needed is something far more profound.
I have come to the conclusion that NASA needs to be abolished. It is the only way to make the substantive changes needed. In talking with others about this, I think that many of the services done by NASA can be given to more appropriate agencies, while a completely new organization can be started to take on the true core functions of NASA.
Space tracking, data and relay, and other functions currently performed by Goddard can easily be integrated into Space Command. Essential launch operations should go to the Air Force. Commercial promotion and development should go to the Department of Commerce, and be directed to make the fullest possible use of commercial launch and development services. All non-essential launch services should be contracted out to truly private launch operations as soon as possible.
Core functions of essential research into aviation and space development can be given to a new, small, agency. This agency will do some research on its own, but should fund as much of that research as possible to be done by private companies. There is some need for government funded, directed, and performed research, but the fact is that much of what is being done could be better done by private industry. Government needs, at best, to nudge and encourage, not to do and control.
As a part of this, cultures other than NASA need to change. Recent testimony to Congress by Elon Musk, Dennis Tito, and others have pointed out the travesty that is the current regulatory environment for commercial space activities. This matter must be addressed and a clear and business friendly environment created. We need to encourage these people, not hamstring them. This means not only removing the roadblocks created by NASA, but by reforming some other agencies as well so that a clear and sensible policy can be created.
None of this will be an easy process. Every special interest group around will clamor and wail, and want their pound of flesh. It will be a way to determine who is a politician and who is a statesman, for the former will want to give away pounds of flesh while the latter will instead look at and try to do what is right. Doing it right in Washington is never easy.
If, as rumor has long indicated, the position of the current administration to do this very thing, then I say let it be done. Let it be done right, and let it be done now. In all the ways that matter, our economic and technological futures depend on it.
« ...howl's doneAugust 23, 2003
Congratulations To Aaron The Liberal Slayer
I just got a notice that Aaron the Liberal Slayer has moved up to large mamal in the Ecosystem. Congratulations on this move, and I hope that he will return the shout-out favor so that I can continue to more up as well. :)
LW
An Apology And An Explanation
Things have been a little lite of late, and I want to apologize for that. I do know that I have not written as much as normal, and I also know that I have not written on many issues and subjects that deserve attention.
The problem has been that I have suddenly developed two full-time jobs. I have my writing and related work, which though slow is picking up. This weekend, I have to finish a piece on wheelock firearms for a magazine in addition to all the other things on the to-do list. There are some other possibilities looming, and I am do very much hope that they manifest and soon. Being busy earning money is a good thing.
howl on, brother! »There is also the fact that I have to work out each day. This is not a nice to do, it is a have to do for me. It is physical therapy for a knee and shoulder that need rebuilding; it is cardiovascular conditioning; and, it is kicking my metabolism to the point that the obvious signs of hypoglycemia are gone and I have even been able to quit taking my medicine for same. Actually, it was had to quit, as the medicine was starting to make me sick. It is entirely possible that maintaining the exercise program may either put the hypoglycemia into remission or eliminate it all together. This is a very good thing.
It is also clear that the cardiovascular conditioning is having a very beneficial effect. After nearly getting creamed yet again by a semi, possibly the same one as before, running the yield, my blood pressure and pulse were only at 128 over 72 and 78 respectively, when I got inside. By the way, if I ever do get creamed by a semi from Gotoh Distribution, please let the authorities know that this was not the first time they had barreled through the yield and that the charges should be upgraded accordingly.
The problem here is that my routines take a bit of time. Far too long, actually, in terms of my day. I am going to be getting with Jim at the gym on Monday to look at both some better exercises for some things and for better ways to break up what I am doing so that I can do better in less time.
The other factor is that my work at 801 Franklin suddenly went from 2-3 days a week to effectively full-time. I am not really complaining, mind you, but it does mean that I am trying to do two full-time jobs at once, and that is not an easy thing. Working in a kitchen is not a sedentary operation, and working 6-11 hours in a shift and also trying to put in 6-8 hours a day on writing and related work takes a heavy toll.
This blog has been a part of that price. I have tried to post at least one thing each day, and to make it the best I can in extremely limited time. It usually takes an hour to do major posts, but that is an hour that can be spent writing paying stories, pursuing jobs and contracts, talking to my Sissie on the phone, laundry, or the multitude of other necessary things. Unless and until the tip jar suddenly starts bringing in money, the blog will have to come in behind paying writing and the restaurant.
Because I do have paying writing that needs to get done, I have asked Matt to only put me down for four shifts this week. If that happens, and I can get the paying work done, then maybe I can blog a bit more again. If the tip jar suddenly fills up, then I will live up to my promise to devote myself to blogging.
Since that is not likely, I wanted to apologize to you for not doing more this last week and to tell you why. I will do my best to do better, but I can make no promises. Please do, however, keep coming around and checking. You will never know what you will find.
-30- « ...howl's done
Way Of The Wolf: Threads
The other day in Hmmmm, You Don’t Think…, I alluded to the concept of threads: separate issues or events that end up having a connection, and in connecting reveal important and interesting things. This operates on several levels, but I tend to divide it into two parts, world and personal, even though there can be some overlap.
Threads are important to consider because I believe that things happen for a purpose, aimed at a greater good. In every bad thing that happens, some good comes from it. With my mother’s death from ovarian cancer, I actually saw one person have their life saved by what happened to her, and know many others benefited from her taking Taxoltm on an experimental basis. On a daily basis, I think that we are given hints, guidance, and, when we are stubborn, a dead fish upside the head to get us to see and focus.
howl on, brother! »In the world view, threads are important because by seeing them you can get a good idea of the big picture, and realize what is going to happen before it happens. You see things that others will miss. This is important because it gives you a chance to give warning if needed, and to make individual preparations for riding out, or taking full advantage of, what is to come.
What makes a truly good reporter or an intelligence analyst is the ability to detect threads. It is the ability to take a variety of information, much of it seemingly unrelated, and putting together the puzzle that it represents. Doing this means reading and listening to everyone and everything you can, filing stuff away, and letting it percolate in the subconscious a bit. It also means, as a corollary, having a broad range of interests and tastes, as this does help encourage the process. It also means paying attention to the trivialities.
Think of it as obtaining a critical mass of information. Separately, the little bits and pieces don’t mean a thing. Together, they suddenly come together to do strange and interesting things.
This was the process with some of my first stories on Soviet space efforts. I had been doing a lot of reading and studying about the program, trying to learn more about it so I could cover it well. I also paid attention to other things reported to be going on over in the USSR, on a more cursory basis. As a result, I wrote two articles that were more speculative op-ed pieces on the future of those space efforts. One was on what was likely to happen when someone died, and the other had a more serious bent: it was on the likelihood of a major launch failure.
To this day, I can’t tell you all the things that went into the meat of that article. What happened, however, was that all of a sudden enough pieces came into place that I saw a pattern to launch failures, one that indicated a major failure was likely to occur soon. The piece was written, submitted, and not printed because, I think, it was deemed too speculative. The next major launch, however, failed rather spectacularly and the crew had to use the emergency escape system.
This was not the result of inside sources or any cloak-and-dagger stuff, but simply having enough individual pieces that suddenly came together to show a larger picture. I had those pieces because I had made a conscious decision to pay attention, to learn, and to grow. It is something anyone can do if they are truly willing to learn, are willing to set aside the blinders of cultural mores, and keep an open mind.
If you try to force things into pre-conceived forms, the process will not work. Religious, political, social, and other prejudices eliminate your ability not merely to understand the world, but to follow the threads that will allow you to understand what is going on, why it is going on, and what is likely to come.
Yet, threads go far beyond global events and big-picture efforts. They extend to the ultimate big-picture, your life and growth. Earlier, I said that I believe that we are given hints and guidance, and threads are a part of that as well. From major life decisions to small everyday things, there are a multitude of choices and a corresponding amount of hints on how we should go.
I don’t believe in purely binary decisions, life is rarely that straightforward. Usually, we seem to be given a range of choices that cover black, white, and many shades of gray. There is the optimum solution or path that takes you straight to the most desirable outcome, many less optimum routes that will still get you there eventually, and a path or three that will take you straight to painful lessons and growth experiences. Paying attention to threads can help you avoid the latter.
In life, there are some things that are obviously right and wrong. These form the core of your personal ethics system. Most things, however, are not easily judged, especially when it comes to making decisions on what to do in meeting the various challenges that life sends your way. There are always a variety of choices, and your core ethics will help guide you away from some of the worst ones. Deciding among the others can, however, be quite interesting to be polite about it.
Your ultimate goal should always be to do what is right towards others and yourself, to grow personally, professionally, and spiritually. The best path for this is not always clear, and in fact it may not be the obvious path at all. In that case, there are usually hints to this in our daily lives. Comments from strangers, friends, and others may be part of it, events another. What matters is that you pay attention to them, let them percolate, and be receptive to what emerges.
This does not mean following blindly what others say, because threads – and related decisions – are rarely that straightforward. Sometimes the hints are that bold, but more often they are subtle because you do have freedom of choice in your actions. You do have the right to choose to do the stupid thing, but that does not mean that you won’t have to go through a painful life and growth experience as a result. You are allowed to be stubborn and foolish, and life will proceed to give you the lesson you deserve. If you pay attention, however, you will get hints on the right lesson and path for you and yours.
There is, of course, more to it that this. Paying attention to the threads in our lives helps us to see a variety of other things that might otherwise be hidden. From politics at work to complex interpersonal relationships, threads can help pull together the picture you need so as to know where the minefields are, what is safe to ignore, and what needs action.
On any level, however, what matters is your receptivity. It means paying attention not just to the things that interest or entertain you, but to many different things. It means challenging yourself to learn more. It means making notes of the seemingly unimportant details. You don’t have to keep all if it in the forefront of your mind, it simply means noting and filing in that ultimate computer that is atop your spinal column. Combined with maintaining situational awareness, it will provide you with what is needed to see the larger issues, challenges, and opportunities.
Threads are an important part of our life on all levels, and anyone can learn to make use of them. All it takes is time, a willingness and desire to learn and grow, and a conscious decision to set aside personal and cultural blinders so that things can be viewed and judged objectively. The latter is the hardest part to do, but, the rewards of so doing go far beyond threads, and will enrich all aspects of your life.
-30- « ...howl's doneAugust 22, 2003
Judge Roy Bean, er, Moore
This is a “local” issue for me and I have been watching it to see what he would do in his pursuit of Lilly, I mean publicity. This is an issue that the judge has been riding for several years now, and it has served him well. It has taken him from an obscure local judgeship to being the chief justice of the state. And if anyone is wondering, the lack of capitalization is deliberate.
howl on, brother! »I have no doubts that the man has strong and sincere beliefs. It is also my opinion that he realized that his beliefs and his desire to enforce a very narrow viewpoint on certain issues had both mass appeal within certain demographics and has ridden it for all he is worth. Others are covering a variety of legal issues and such, and doing an outstanding job of it. Others are doing a good job of covering the fantasy ideology that Christians “like us” are a persecuted minority within the U.S. Make no mistake about it, that is as much a fantasy ideology as is the brand of Islam that elected to wage war against the U.S. and the civilized world. Others are covering the midnight raid that put it in place without consultation with anyone, an event that has made money for some of the people involved with it. Others are covering the fact that this monument is not even public property.
What I want to look at today is a fairly simple point. Judge Bean here claims to be within his legal rights both as a judge and as an individual. As an individual, he has pursued this particular hobby horse for many years, and this is not the first time he has defied a higher court on this issue. He is right in saying that as an individual he does not have to accept what he considers an incorrect or illegal ruling from any judge, He is right that none of us have to do so. We can defy laws we think are wrong, and are free to refuse orders from the Bench – or any source – if we feel them to be illegal or immoral.
The difference here is that he is not doing it as an individual. He claims the moral high road, and a better understanding of Federal and local law, and that he is doing what any Citizen should do. Yet, he is doing this not as a Citizen, but the chief justice of a state with the state to bear the burden of his crusade. For while he may face individual jail time, rather than put his own purse up towards the fine he has in essence put the purse of the state on the line. Every other Citizen in the state is now on the line to pay his fines.
If the judge is sincere and honorable in his intentions, then let him match his talk by agreeing to take full and complete responsibility. This means having him (or his supporters through donations) pay for all legal, office, and other related expenses that the State may incur or has incurred in this process; having him agree that the fines are his responsibility as well; and, that any other civil or criminal penalties are his as well, be it monetary or jail time.
His own statements yesterday on the rights and responsibilities of Citizens, particularly in the face of illegal and unjust rulings, clearly state he can do no less. This is his own private crusade, so he should do the honorable, responsible, and legal thing and take full responsibility for it in every respect. He has chosen this burden and test, and he should take it up in full.
By his actions shall he be judged. His actions to date do him little credit, and do the State much worse. Yet I am willing to make a bet that he rides this new persecuted hero status even further. That fact may well be the saddest commentary of all.
-30- « ...howl's doneAugust 21, 2003
A Busy Day In The Middle East
On the good news side: Chemical Ali has been captured. It actually happened several days ago, but they waited to announce until his identity was confirmed. Joining him in captivity is one of the senior members of the Fedayeen, who was caught with an explosives shopping list and an apparent list of targets for assassination. There have also, apparently, been a couple of other bits of good news, though less lofty. Seems the people may be helping nail these people, and that is a good sign.
On the about time side: Israel took out a top Hamas leader with a military strike today. Hamas and IJ, of course, claims that this ends the cease fire and removes them from having to do anything for or with the Roadmap. Gee, I thought that most reasonably intelligent and sane people would have thought that the cease fire ended when they bombed a bus full of children. Then again, to them that doesn't count since they were only Israeli's and Americans...
There is a lot more, so go to the right, check out Fox and Sky News, and keep your eyes open. I will not be blogging a lot today, but more on that soon.
LW August 20, 2003
Hmmmm, You Don’t Think…
This morning, on hearing the news, I was reminded of an article linked to – I believe – by Instapundit, for a fairly reputable source that said the Middle Eastern Roadmap, the “bring it on” campaign, and a couple of other efforts were not as they seemed. In essence, they were a part of a broader, less public effort aimed at ridding the world of a lot of troublemakers at once. As a part of this, there were a lot of things going on in the background and not being reported. howl on, brother! »The more I have thought about it, the more I wonder. We now have outside groups operating in Iraq, more and more openly. This is bringing state-sponsored terrorism out into the open, meaning that the countries behind them are being exposed. We have terrorist groups making themselves into very large targets, and clearly identifying their members and leaders. There are other things afoot as well, that also point towards things coming to a head soon.
I find it interesting that Syria will soon take over the presidency of the UN Security Council, and even more so today that so many are pointing out the apparent ties to the UN bombing yesterday of Syria.
So, do you think that maybe in September or so, we might just see:
Certain organizations not merely identified, but potentially eliminated?
The UN given a choice on being a productive organization doing real good in the world, or continuing on as a supporter and collaborator with some of the worst regimes in the world without the membership of certain key nations?
The Palestinian Authority facing an ultimatum of either doing what they say or being eliminated or – worse yet from their point of view – set aside and ignored?
Syria, Iran, and other countries having proof of their activities in terrorism not just exposed, but being held to ultimate account?
A heck of a lot of bad people being eliminated?
Certain other countries being exposed for their support not merely of despots, but of aiding those despots with efforts to produce weapons of mass destruction?
Interesting. There are a lot of loose threads out there that may be connected. If so, the next few months may not merely be interesting, but could well decide the course of the world for the next century or so. I know how I want it to go, how about you?
-30- « ...howl's done
The New Big Lie Meme Emerges
Yep, you can tell who has been advising Gov. Davis of late. The same tired meme has emerged with a slightly different twist.
This time, it is not just the vast right-wing conspiracy attacking the “legal” election of Gov. Davis in an attempt to hijack California just before the presidential elections, but it is also trying to hijack the “legal” redistricting plans in Texas and one other state. You know, the ones where those upstanding Democratic upholders of truth, justice, and the American way go hide like craven cowards out of state so that no state business can be done without them. If this were Republicans or any other party doing this, you can bet that the media would be all over it, with “Held Hostage” alerts counting the days, hours, and minutes. The silence on the Democratic hijacking of the legitimate functions of government is resounding, however.
It is the same big lie, the same meme, just with a new coat of paint. Spare me, please. Only the brain dead, and committed ideologues, will buy this one.
LW August 19, 2003
Good Post on Reuters Cameraman
Trent Telenko has a very good post on the death of a Reuters cameraman by U.S. forces in Iraq. I may follow up on this myself soon, but for now go read this take on it.
LW
It Will Get Worse, But It Is Already Better
This morning’s bombing of the U.N. compound in Baghdad is a tragedy, though hardly unexpected. We can and should expect to see this and other bad things happen as several threads in the war on terror come together.
howl on, brother! »First, it is clear that the invitation to various terrorist organizations to come to Iraq and play has been received. They have indeed brought it on and as a result, many of them have gone on to whatever reward awaits them. This is the same tactic used by troops during the conflict, when challenges were broadcast over loudspeakers and the attackers that were brought out were dispatched by snipers or gun crews well away from the troops, simply writ large.
It escapes many, or is ignored by many with various axes to grind, that by providing a playground for these delightful people, that they are not busy elsewhere and are otherwise distracted from doing other things. The more distracted they are, the easier they are to locate and deal with elsewhere, as recent events in Thailand rather dramatically prove. The more of them who go to Iraq to fight and die, all the better. Yes, it will be hard on the Iraqi people to some extent, but it also provides an opportunity for them.
This opportunity is one to mature, to learn, and to develop a strong dislike for such terrorists. It is a chance for them to work for themselves to identify, turn in, or otherwise deal with the trash. By implication, once they start doing this to the foreigners, it will then become more natural for them to do it within their own ranks, both eliminating the thugs and removing a base of support. They will also grow to appreciate more fully the joys and responsibilities of self-governance.
Second, the behavior and choice of target are not surprising. Much of what is going on is in the mistaken belief that continuing casualties will make the U.S. pull out. These people have seen it happen before time and time again, particularly in the Middle East. They also listen to politicians, from the nine Dem Wraiths seeking the one presidency to others like the congresscritter on Fox this morning yammering on about how we should never have gotten involved in the first place and we need immediately to turn all over to the U.N.
They would love that. They are counting on that. The fact is, the people behind this are very well aware that in Afghanistan as well as other locations, that if any shots are fired near, much less at, UN personnel that the UN will cease operations and withdraw from the area, leaving it to the bad guys.
Exercise for the curious: compare Afghanistan where the U.S. has left the rebuilding largely in the hands of the UN and associated NGOs. Take a look at how much improvement there is in terms of governmental control, improved economy, improved infrastructure, etc. Then take a good look at Iraq and what has been done under the 20-something member coalition.
There is a tremendous difference. There have been significant infrastructure improvements, and not just to those things damaged during the war. Governance is already far ahead, even if behind what many would hope. From medical care to education, there is almost no area that is not already vastly improved.
Far from “the tragedy of the American occupation” that a wonder bliffy from the UN described, the tragedy lies in how long the previous status quo was allowed to continue by the UN. To the best of my knowledge, no one has been fed into a tree chipper under this so-called tragedy.
Therein lies the problem for those still loyal to the old regime or the power they had under said tyranny. They see how much is being done, and how fast. They see the general population improving, learning, growing, and that is a real problem for them. They need an ignorant and unhappy population to be slaves, and they are being robbed of it before their eyes.
Which brings us to the third point. That this is just one more mark of desperation. They are having to attack critical infrastructure and use car bombs not because they are strong or well organized, but because they are weak and rapidly loosing power. Their control over the people, even those previously loyal to them, is slipping. It is taking the use of outside assets to do the job.
This is all good news. Yes, the bombings and loss of life by our soldiers and Iraqi civilians is a tragedy, and we must mourn them. Yet we must not let their deaths be in vain. We will see more desperate acts, and there will be more tragedies to come. The greatest tragedy would be to misread what is happening just as the press and politicians misread Tet all those years ago, and pull out and leave it to the bad guys.
The fact is, they are desperate and what is going on proves that. It proves that they do know the UN, that they have very much misread this president and the current election debates. It is also clear that an awful lot of outsiders have come in to create trouble. This is all good, as we have the chance to show them the difference between the coalition and the UN; the difference between this President and many previous, as well as not to take the bleatings of various politicians too seriously; and, it provides a target rich environment.
We must waste none of this opportunity. There is so much to gain in terms of a free and democratic state in the Middle East, an end to many terrorist and terror networks, and a chance to ensure the safety of all humanity in the process. It truly is worth the price.
-30- « ...howl's doneAugust 18, 2003
Of Kitchens and Kings
I have long dreamed of building a house, heck, of even buying an existing house and redoing it to my desires. In either case, the house always revolves around the kitchen.
That is the way it has always been in my family, on both my mother’s side and my father’s. At my Aunt Blanche’s, we almost never used the massive living and dining rooms, instead we all congregate into the large kitchen to visit. At my parent’s home it was the same way, and my Aunt Joan’s even had a place where we could all sit and talk with the person cooking. howl on, brother! »My plans for the perfect kitchen have undergone many changes. I ripped up everything last fall after taking a class at Viking in Franklin, Tennessee. The ergonomics of some of their layout just made good sense, so I wanted to incorporate that into the design. My plans just took another change after a conversation with Matt.
For a long time, I had been looking at high-end consumer goods, such as Viking, because I thought that real commercial would be even more expensive. I’ve just found out I was wrong, way wrong. With Matt’s guidance, I just found out that I can do the guts of my kitchen for about one quarter of what I had anticipated going consumer. That means a commercial stove, a commercial convection oven unit, and some other goodies can now be factored into the grand design. I still don’t think I can afford the walk-in cooler I would love to have, but I can get the commercial dishwashing system and sinks.
This bears much thinking upon, as it opens up a range of opportunities to do some truly creative kitchen design. Design(s) that can work in an existing house if done right. The chance to have the counters of my dreams, and to use them so that people can sit around part of them, and visit when they come over. So that the kitchen will truly be the heart of the house. That is important to me, as king of my castle. It will let a family tradition continue on into the future, and I will have a kingdom well worth ruling.
-30- « ...howl's done
The Desperation Shows
The increase in number and type of attacks comes as no surprise to anyone who has been studying the situation. From SDB to the pages of Winds of Change, it was discussed and it only means one thing: the opposition is on the ropes.
Hitting them hard, taking out leadership, and generally showing them that they are finished is bringing out last-gasp desperation. They are counting on trouble to drive the Coalition of the Willing out, as it has worked elsewhere before. They are hoping that all the inconvenience will make the population rise up. I hope they are right. howl on, brother! »I hope the Iraqi people will rise up, rise right up and deal with these people for themselves. I hope that they get tired of no power, no water, food problems, and everything else that the die-hards and outside fighters are causing, and will report them, disown them, and even kill them. The die-hards are used to the Iraqi people being easily manipulated sheep, but the sheep have looked up. They have looked up, out, and around and while it will take generations to achieve the change that they and we desire, it is starting.
With their help, coalition troops can and will arrest or destroy those who want to bring back the glory days, the days when the people were mere slaves and objects. With their help, repairs can be made, order restored, and services provided. With the help of the Iraqi people, the schools can and will begin the long process of eradicating the lies and ignorance in which they have been held.
It will not be an easy road, but nothing truly worthwhile is ever easy. This point will be missed by The Media, opposition politicians, and enemies of peace and growth ranging from France to North Korea. Or at least it will be missed in public. In private, they are as scared as those still loyal to the Butcher of Baghdad. That is why some countries are sending fighters and providing support to troublemakers in Iraq. That is why they do everything they can to obstruct, obfuscate, and otherwise be pains in the process. The thought of a future in which pain, terror, and ignorance are reduced or eliminated is a direct threat to them.
Yet, to those who do think the writing is indeed on the wall. It says those opposed to change, to growth, and to ultimate true peace are desperate. Good.
-30- « ...howl's doneAugust 17, 2003
Book Review: The Dragon Of Despair, By Jane Lindskold
First off, if you have not yet read anything by Jane Lindskold, you are missing a real delight. This latest entry in the “Firekeeper” saga is outstanding, and builds expertly on the first book in the series, Through Wolf’s Eyes, and its companion Wolf’s Head, Wolf’s Heart. howl on, brother! »The books follow the life of Firekeeper, a young woman raised by royal wolves as one of their own, in honor of a promise made to her dying mother. Firekeeper is discovered by a team sent to find out what happened to the settlement of which her mother was a part, and who then take her back to “the civilized world.”
There is, of course a great deal more to this, but I will not go into it lest I spoil some of the delightful writing, plot lines, and such that await you. As good as Dragon is, if you have not read the first two books, take the time to do so such that you can savor this delightful read.
Jane Lindskold is one of those authors who does outstanding writing that is also a good read. After “discovering” her courtesy of the late, and much missed, Roger Zelazny and a push by David Weber, I was taken enough to order all of her out-of-print books used, and was not disappointed. These latest efforts are a treat for the mind, and I look forward with anticipation to continuing the journey of Firekeeper in the next volume of the series.
-30- « ...howl's done
801 Franklin Update
Things continue apace, and I am slowly starting to learn a few things. One good thing is that Matt is a teacher in the right way. He shares, he shows, and he leads by example. Here is a photo from the other night of him showing some of us how to do a particular salad.
Yesterday was a great day in that it was not spent peeling things and such, but doing a bit more of a step up. Matt showed me how to make pesto his way, had me make a gorgonzola spread, and turned me into the Crostini Kid by having me make 600-1000 of them. Not only was it to be a busy Saturday night, but it was also an art opening, since the restaurant also showcases artwork. They were expecting up to 300 people for that, plus the dinner crowd. So I helped the real chefs get ready by browning baguettes, making pesto, making the spread, and then working with a chef to turn plain crostini into delicious hors d’oeuvres by putting pesto on some and then putting a goat cheese and parsley mixture on top of the pesto; taking crostini with gorgonzola spread and putting a diced mushroom mixture on top of them, and helping plate, etc. Did a little bit else, and enjoyed it very much.
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Sunday Recipe: Mrs. Broughton's Asparagus Supreme
This one is always a holiday or special occasion favorite. Enjoy. howl on, brother! »Equipment:
Knife
Egg slicer (optional)
Casserole dish
Boiler
Grater
Oven
Ingredients:
3 large cans white or green asparagus
2-5 hardboiled eggs
1/2 -1 cup grated cheese
1.5 cup cream sauce
1/2 cup blanched almonds (sliced or slivered)
1.5 T butter
3 T flour
pepper
salt
1.5 cups hot milk
Directions:
Cream Sauce for Asparagus Supreme
Melt butter and add seasoned flour and stir until well blended. Gradually add hot milk while stirring constantly. Bring to boiling point and boil for 2 minutes. Add cheese just before pouring over the asparagus.
Slice eggs. Add grated cheese to the cream sauce. Place alternating layers of asparagus, sauce, eg, and almonds in casserole and bake 20 minutes at 350-375 degrees, or until golden brown.
Options/Extras:
First, I always double the cream sauce, and more than double the cheese. What is above is NOT doubled.
Use good cheese in the sauce, and I had great luck using real smoked cheese as a part of the mix. I used some good sharp cheddar, a real smoked cheese, and one other type (can’t remember, used what was in at the cheese store) to add flavor.
Also, I prefer to use the sliced almonds, and to toast them a bit beforehand. Adds to the flavor and the crunch
-30-
« ...howl's doneAugust 16, 2003
Rational Preparedness: Power
What, did you think I was going to miss something this obvious? The great blackout gives ready fodder for the mill, especially when you have reporters and anchors on network news talking about how ill prepared they were. The fact is, a power outage does not have to be the end of the world, just a mere inconvenience to those who are prepared.
There is already talk about lawsuits, who let this happen, and such, but lost in all the blather is the simple fact that it is up to each and every one of us to be prepared. It is not up to the government to take care of us, it is not up to the power company, nor is it up to anyone else. It is up to you to be prepared. This goes double if you or yours have a critical need for electricity, such as for medical equipment. howl on, brother! »First off, you should always have at least one flashlight in the home with batteries changed out every six months. I have absolutely no sympathy for those caught without during this last blackout. Good flashlights are not that expensive, and you can get so-so quality lights for almost nothing. Personally, I recommend and use Hubbell brand/HubbelLite because they are well designed, much brighter than the average flashlight, and about as rugged as they come. They can even be used in some hazardous environments. Yes, they are a little pricey at close to $20.00 each, but well worth it.
While you should have at least one flashlight, I recommend having at least one in each room and one in each vehicle. There is no warning when the power goes out, and rummaging through the dark trying to remember where you put the single flashlight is not a fun party game. Put them someplace obvious, even if discrete, and check them periodically.
Candles can also provide light, but they are a fire hazard. If you have proper holders and take great care, candles can and will provide light and even a small amount of heat if needed. They make a great way to conserve batteries, and you can even have some fun turning the incident into a good excuse for romance with a partner, or adventure with kids. A good way to protect furniture and walls in an emergency is to use aluminum foil to catch wax, reflect light, and protect surfaces from heat.
Better than just plain candles for lighting are candle lanterns. These are sold a sporting good stores and are a wonderful gift to the camper and preparedness freaks such as myself. A candle lantern is a self-contained system that keeps the candle in a protective environment for fire safety, provides a reflector that can be used to make it directional, and a mechanism for either standing or hanging the system. The candles that go in them are multi-hour candles, so they can be used for very long stretches. The replacement candles are also fairly inexpensive, so it is not a problem to have enough candles to go 48 or so hours straight.
Because I both like to camp and because I live in an area where thunderstorms, tornadoes, and ice storms hit, I also have a good lantern. Lanterns can be a good investment and the route I chose was to go with a multi-fuel lantern. These can burn the special lantern fuel, white gas, kerosene, or unleaded car gasoline. If you have my luck with mantles, keep several spares handy.
Okay, these take care of light, now what about heating for heating food, water, and such? Easy. I have my camping stoves, and for the urban reader I also have a portable chef’s stove. The latter can be found in restaurant supply stores, online at Chef’s Club and similar outlets, or even in some department stores. It is the same thing many places use for made-to-order omelets and such on buffets, makes a nice addition to any household, and has practical uses for entertaining and such. No reason preparedness items shouldn’t be used for other things, in fact all the better.
Other heating can be problematic, but solved by things such as kerosene heaters, fireplaces, and such. To be honest, I don’t have a kerosene heater simply because the apartment comes with a fireplace. If I did not have a fireplace, I probably would have something else but to be honest I have never absolutely had to have one. The last time we had a significant power outage because of an ice storm, the place stayed fairly warm just from candles, cooking, lanterns, etc. With proper clothing, I was quite comfortable and set to the point that the people running the nearby shelter threatened to come stay with me.
Now, what about the wonders of modern life, the many electronic conveniences? If you are fortunate enough to have a gas stove, heater, water heater, etc., you may think yourself set for much of the vicissitudes, but bear in mind that many will not come on without power. Your computer, fancy phones, and other items also require power. What to do?
Again because of thunderstorms and such, I have invested in a series of real surge protectors (not talking cheap power strips here, stick a crowbar in it and get real) and UPS systems. With them in place, I can keep the command phone running including message system, keep the laptop going for quite some time (provided the laptop battery is in good shape), and even run some of the peripherals as needed. Were there other critical systems, they would have a UPS as well. I have threatened to put one on the entertainment center, but that is just because I hate resetting everything after the thunderstorms roll through. All major or expensive electronics do have good surge protection because of the storms. This is an area where the Air Force invested some significant money in a nearby facility to put all the computer cable over to fiber optic in large measure because of the thunderstorms and the repair bills from same.
If you or a loved one have critical medical equipment, call your local power company right now and find out how to get them set for priority support. There is a brief amount of paperwork (at least here), and it ensures that in an emergency you or they will get priority service. I did it for my Dad and his oxygen system, just in case.
Yet, if you have a situation where it is a matter of life or death to keep power, it is not up to the power company or the local government to take care of things, it is up to you. Get with an electrician, go to the local home store, and get a generator. Get the electrician to hook it in on a special circuit that will run the medical systems and maybe a light or two. This does not have to be expensive, especially given that a light is at stake. Splurge a little and get a larger generator and have a bit more comfort at home. Also, don’t forget to check and see if this can be deducted from your taxes because of the medical necessity.
Okay, you say, this is fine if you have your own home. What if you are part of an apartment complex, live in an apartment building, co-op, condo, or such? Well, then, work with your neighbors and the owner of the complex to go in on things together. If you do it right now and live in an affected area, you might be surprised at what people would be willing to chip in to help all. If one or two don’t want to participate, keep in mind that it is okay. Yes, they may get a free ride in an emergency, but better that than you be without just because of them.
The other thing to do is be sure you have battery powered radios and at least one battery powered television. Be sure to have spare batteries as well. This way, you can get news and information, and even have entertainment as needed. I say radios because I recommend having one boombox or similar device that many can listen to, and at least one personal radio that can clip on a belt or go in a shirt pocket to stay with you as you move around. Consider also some of the handcrank radios and related gear as they will not be totally dependent on batteries.
While it is not directly related to providing power, I do recommend keeping a few gallons of water tucked away for emergencies like this. It can be in the back of a closet or shelf, or wherever works for you. Just remember to change it out about every six months or so. With water, you can survive about anything. If you keep some food as well, remember to make it food that does not require extra pots or things that will need water for cleaning…
When you travel, also take certain precautions. I always travel with a flashlight (actually, a Hubbell and a penlight Hubbell) and some other basic gear. I prefer hotels that have windows you can open, rather than totally sealed. In this way, you need not end up like those poor people who slept outside in New York the other night rather than in the rooms they could not get to or stay in. Yes, you or your travel agent can find out about such things before you go, so take an extra 30 seconds and ask.
Also, wherever you are when the power does go out, get a light and every available container in the room and head for the bathroom. Fill up the tub(s), and fill the containers with potable water. The water may not stay on if the water supply system also looses power. It should have backup power, but as seen recently even cities that know better may not have a working system for such. The tub water can be used to flush the commode every now and then (not every time you go), and the potable can be used for drinking, making coffee or tea, etc.
Have a plan for travel and home, and follow it when needed. For an hour or two of planning, an hour or so of shopping, and less than $100.00, you can do a heck of a lot of preparation that will get you through a blackout in comfort if not style. Spend a little more and do even better. Remember, as I’ve pointed out before in the rational preparedness posts, you don’t have to (and shouldn’t) go spend large amounts at once. Do it over time, take your time and shop around, and build up for emergencies.
Yes, you will end up with an investment in supplies, but that investment is returned many times over when you need it. It is not up to anyone else to take care of you or provide for you when the lights go out, that is up to you.
-30- « ...howl's doneAugust 15, 2003
A New Blog To Check Out
The Blogfather sent me a message yesterday about a new blog. I have checked it out and suggest you do as well. Interesting.
LW
Business WWW Site Is Up
My professional WWW site is now up and running. I want to thank those who sent in comments, particularly Sapper Mike who had some real good ones. My Blogfather has been most patient with some of my questions and whining as well. Check it out, and let me know what you like or if there is a problem. Now to figure out how to best do the audio samples...
LW
Taking Sides Between Frank J. And InstaPundit
As many of you may be aware, war has been declared between Frank J. of IMAO and InstaPundit. Frank feels spurned by the lack of a link in the InstaPundit blogroll, much less the fact that the good professor refused to link to him in stories for a while.
Being the whore mercenary that I am, I am offering myself on the market to InstaPundit. Frank doesn’t link to me or return e-mails, but at least he doesn’t call asking for money. While the professor has ignored me for some time now, he does teach at my most recent alma matter and was kind enough to link to me on a story a while back. That day alone brought in some 2,500 hits. I hear that he likes his puppy drinks shaken, not stirred, and will keep that in mind.
Of course, if the professor continues to ignore me as well, and Frank makes a good offer…
The Lights Slowly Come Back On
Yesterday’s major blackout continues, but power is slowly being restored to the areas that were effected. From the upper mid-west to Canada to New York, the ripples in the grid managed to do what was supposed to be impossible, and did it all in about nine seconds. While many are already talking about how bad it was, I am surprised it was not worse and am not at all surprised at how poorly prepared many locations were for the event. howl on, brother! »Back in 1976, I took part in a National Science Foundation Summer Studies Program that focused on energy and national policy. I had heard of the power grid, and in my somewhat anal retentive mind saw it as a neat organized grid just like you found on grid paper. Boy, was I ever wrong.
The national power grid is really an international power grid, and rather than being one grid, it is a collection of regional and local grids patched together in a variety of fashions. The technology involved varies wildly, from some small parts with the latest and greatest, to significant portions that are using technology more than a half century out of date.
In biological organisms, hybridization usually brings a stronger system. In technological hybridization the same thing can occur, but it is far more likely that the result will be far weaker. Imagine trying to put together a computer network where each unit is a stand-alone system using different configurations and operating systems. Then you start to get a picture of the power grid.
Now, it really is not that bleak, but the fact is that major portions of that grid have not had the improvements needed to keep pace with the changes in the world. We now are far more dependent on electrical power than at any time in history. Not only are lights, heating and air systems, water pumps, gas pumps, and related systems needing electricity, the basic control systems for most things in our life require it as well. Computers are not merely on our desktop, and sometimes even controlling our home, they are in almost every appliance and modern convenience today.
You may think that if you have a gas stove, that a power failure might not affect you. Yet, if it is a modern, energy-efficient system, you would be wrong. Even gas stoves that have piezoelectric starters usually have a control system that requires outside power. Eliminate that power, and the stove will not cut on nor in many cases can you manually cut it on because of the built-in safety features.
This is but one example of how dependent we are on electricity. There are multitudes more, but I think the point has been made.
Yet, at the same time as demand has increased along with critical dependency, the power system as a whole has been not merely neglected, but deliberately stymied for years. With many groups, anything that a power company or provider wants is automatically evil, no matter what. It is almost a tenet of some environmental groups that power anything is bad for the environment. With others, it is an attempt to gouge the consumer, disrupt the view, etc. As a result, needed new transmission lines are disallowed; hardware upgrades at plants are blocked; operating and transmission system improvements do not occur; and, new sources of power are eliminated.
Take a look at the construction of new power plants as an example. Take a look at how many are being built, how many are needed, how many were planned but cancelled, and how many are planned. Then take a look at how long it takes just to get approval for a new plant, much less bring it on line. Then take a look at the new plants as a function of time, and then compare that to the rate of demand increase. It is not a pretty picture.
Now that you have done that, start looking at the associated systems. How many new transmission lines have gone up? How many do the companies say are needed? What is the rate of improvement in systems and hardware? How many have you opposed directly or indirectly?
Yes, power companies are out to make money and some have been greedy pigs. At the same time, they do have the right to make a nice profit and have the funds to plow back into the business to make improvements. In many cases, this has not been done. Some of it is the fault of the businesses involved, because they have made bad decisions and put a higher profit ahead of needed reinvestment. Some of the fault lies with us, the consumers, and the regulatory boards that are in place that prevent rate hikes and other related issues that would provide the funds needed. Activists, management, government, and consumer: we all share in the responsibility for the neglect.
We also share responsibility for the lack of preparedness. As individuals and as business entities, how many had basic flashlights or emergency lighting of any sort in our homes or offices? How many had some form of UPS for computer or other critical systems? Emergency water for drinking and cooling, or even for flushing a toilet? A plan for what to do if there were a blackout?
Back in 1976, I was stunned at the number of businesses, high-rise buildings, and others that had little or no preparedness. Even some of those places that had systems did not have working systems, as tests showed. It is not enough just to have such, you have to maintain it and you have to test it. I remember well one such test out at NASA that took out power for a much longer period of time than planned when the emergency backup system did not work.
Today, I see it as being as bad or worse. Our dependency has increased and our preparations have – in my opinion – decreased. Just look at New York, where major hotels had people leaving to sleep on the street because there was no ventilation, no way to open the windows, and no way for most to get up to the top floor rooms where the heat was building up the worst anyway.
The good news of the day is that what happened appears not to be terrorism, though it may have just given them a heck of a nudge towards a vulnerable target. It also does not appear to have been a lightening strike in Niagara, a fire near New York, or other rumored point of start. The best speculation so far appears to be that it started in the mid-west, but that is still speculation. It may be several days before the event can be traced and time-lined.
The good news is compounded by the way in which most people took the event: there were very few problems and those isolated. Most people joined together, made the best of a bad situation, and some even appear to have had a good time from what is being shown on network news this morning. Somehow, rather than this being a disaster that set people at each other, in the wake of 9-11 it brought people together, and brought out the best in many or most. That is an incredibly good thing to see.
If we truly want to prevent this from being a problem again, either through chance or by terrorist design, we need to begin paying attention to the grid. The things that are needed to bring everything up to date should be identified, costs set, and appropriate rate hikes or re-allocations made. Where money is already being set aside for improvements, it would be good to be sure that it is actually going for such and not into some bit of political pork.
Despite all, we do have the best power (and health and a few other things) system in the world. Now we just need to make it the best it can be, so that the lights will remain on and our advances in all areas can continue.
-30- « ...howl's doneAugust 14, 2003
The Sting Was Blown?
According to this article found courtesy of Professor Reynolds, a report by the BBC prevented law enforcement from "flipping" the British arms dealer just arrested. While it would be easy to simply blister the Beeb for yet one more effort to aid terrorist and dictators, I think that would be wrong in this case howl on, brother! »No, it is not the end of the world with my defending the Beeb. I do think we need to look at two separate things here and address both, for they have strong implications for both a free press and a successful fight in the war on terror.
The fact that law enforcement wanted to flip this guy means that many things about this case suddenly make sense. This was an elaborate sting operation with unprecedented cooperation. While Russia does have a "dog in the hunt" because of its ongoing war in Chechnya, taking part so fully in a sting of this nature also could hurt some of their open, gray, and black arms sales that bring in a lot of hard currency. This is going to particularly affect the gray, though I doubt that the government will officially mourn anything that hurts the pure black. There clearly has to be more to this case than was reported to get this level of cooperation.
An attempt to flip and create a mole makes good sense. The person has little choice, has good to perfect cover, and can move in circles where law enforcement is going to have difficulty.
So now we get to the meat of the matter: what happened to blow this. On the surface, if the report(s) are true, then it was the Beeb deciding to run an exclusive story. Once the report was out, the flip could not be done. Therefore, they had to cut the operation short and just go with the setup.
There will be hue and cry against the BBC over this. Yet, what the BBC did is strictly in keeping with the cannons of journalism, especially as practiced before 9-11. The mindset with many in journalism and reporting is that you go with the exclusive, you get the story out no matter the consequences. Indeed, consideration of the consequences is not an option for many because doing so means that the story might not run and worse harms could result. This is particularly true within the mindset of those who still see government, especially under republican/opposition control, as the true threat.
My own personal take has been and still is that one must consider the consequences and that there are indeed higher considerations that also must be taken into account. National security and protection of those who serve are just two of those, but to consider them puts a reporter beyond the pale according to many in the profession.
And there can be some merit to what they say. Yes, there can be consequences to running a story, but one does have to consider the greater good. Will running a story cause small-scale harm (i.e. the deaths of a few people) but prevent large-scale harm (i.e. some form of totalitarianism, loss of major freedoms, etc.)? This is a legitimate issue, and not too different in the basics from those faced by almost any military commander. The problem often lies, in my opinion, with the political bias of the reporter and organization, which shapes what they see as the greater threat.
After 9-11, there can be no doubt as to the greater threat. We face an enemy that wants our complete and utter destruction. Freedom of any sort is an anathema to them, and they have no respect for any of our institutions. Many in the media have failed to see this, and while I agree that we need to be cautious lest we destroy our freedoms for them, it is clear to me who the true enemy is right now.
Yet, many in the media don't see this and operate solely on the basis of domestic political agendas and outmoded worldviews. They get a tip and run with it as they always would have done, without parsing the situation on the basis of reality. Getting the tip and running with it would not have the same consequences pre-9-11 as it does now. This, however, has not sunk into the greater consciousness of The Media. If you want to see this for yourself, a number of media organizations, from NASW on up, have logs of their e-mail chat lists that are open to public viewing. Go read them and you will get a good sense for how things stand.
But it is not fair to completely blame the media on this. There is also the matter of the leak from law enforcement. Leaks are a part of the game and will always be a part of the game. Leaks are often done deliberately, as a part of policy on the part of a given administration. It is a way of getting information out, and sending messages, without doing so in an official manner. Sometimes it is simply a way to recruiting a reporter by making sure they get a juicy story. Other times, it is the only way to expose a serious problem that truly does need to see the light of day. Finally, it is a great way to get attention and make yourself seem important.
I have the suspicion that the latter may be the case here. Just as The Media does not get the new circumstances, it is clear that many in law enforcement don't either. They are still operating in a pre-9-11 mode that concentrates on turf wars, power expansion, political gain, and all those other fun and wonderful things that drive differing organizations. In some cases, leaks like this have happened to deliberately blow the work of another organization, to make them look bad and to give some form of advantage to another.
I neither know nor care the reasons for this leak, if indeed it truly did occur. What matters is that it blew what could have been a very successful operation to penetrate a world that we desperately need to enter and eliminate. Therefore, if it did take place, it was in direct aid and comfort of the enemy, and could and possibly should be viewed as treason. If we go after anyone here, it should be the source of the leak, not the people who ran with it.
Yes, the Beeb did, in my opinion, act irresponsibly if these reports are true. In this day and age, I would hope that any reporter dealing with a story like this will stop, think, and act as a responsible individual. I would hope that the organization they work for would as well, but I fear that in many bastions of The Media, stuck in a pre-9-11 mindset, this is impossible.
The real problem in this case, however, lies in the source of the leak. That leak is rooted in a tradition that has as many problems as that of The Media. It is far worse in that the source of the leak swore to serve and protect. Unless there is something else deep behind the scenes that has not yet come out, something truly evil, then there is no justification for what was done. This is where we need to concentrate, not on a thoroughly discredited media organization, but on a leak who would so casually break their oath and risk not just one operation, but the safety of hundreds or even thousands of lives.
Look for the leak, and condemn them. Look at the BBC, and mourn what was once a proud media organization.
-30- « ...howl's doneAugust 13, 2003
And Speaking Of Idiots, I Mean Congress Critters
This is just plain stupid. I will let the article speak for itself, but this sounds like the makings of quite another fine mess. Sort of like the one(s) that led up to 9-11. What really gets me, is that we pay them to do what is right for the country. Is there any way we can get our money back?
LW
Commercial Aircraft Anti-Missile Defense
Earlier today, I wrote a quick piece on commercial aircraft anti-missile defense. The situation is complex and deserves a fuller response, so here is my first take on it. howl on, brother! »First, I think that the times are such that commercial, civil/general, and military aircraft all should have some form of anti-missile defense. Ideally, this would be on a voluntary basis, but I am also sure that the rampant desire by the political hacks to be seen “doing something” may well make it mandatory.
Second, I think that the cost will be well above the $10 billion figure that is being tossed around so casually today. It may well cost that to purchase and install the systems in all U.S. based carriers, but it leaves out the associated costs: the down time for the planes, the down time for the crews, the training time for the people responsible, etc. I rather suspect that this figure could easily double if all the costs of doing this are considered.
Third, I think that the current systems can and should be improved, particularly for commercial aviation. Right now, the trend is toward two-person crews on the flight deck, and as a pilot I can tell you that they are usually fairly busy during taxi, takeoff, and landing. Since this is also the time when a missile attack is most likely, any commercial anti-missile defense will need to be highly automated.
Fourth, I don’t think the government, that is each taxpayer, should be footing the bill in this manner. I would much rather pay a slightly higher ticket price and reward those who do develop and install such systems, than to have the government involved. Just look at how the FAA and TSA have done so much good for commercial and civil aviation. Yes, that is heavy sarcasm there, and if you don’t think that having the government mandate and pay for anti-missile systems would be yet another bureaucratic clusterfuck, then you are not paying attention.
All that said, I think such systems need to be developed and implemented. We need a new generation of systems that will, in turn, drive the development of even more sophisticated military systems.
Commercial space activities are already playing a role in this. One of NASA’s commercial space centers, or whatever they are being called this week, had developed a mid-range IR semiconductor laser that works at room temperature. This laser may well prove a key to one part of an anti-missile system, and there are partners including the U.S. Air Force already working on this.
Other advanced electronics and programming will also help. With more sophisticated processors and systems, countermeasures will require less human input. This is critical in a cockpit, where there is already quite a good bit to do, a high stress level, and severe penalties for mistakes. Adding yet more life-and-death to this mix is foolish, so the systems need to be as standalone as possible. While true AI is a ways away, there already exist sophisticated enough programs to handle something like this. Something that can detect a threat, begin spoofing it, and let the crew know that they have a problem.
There is also one other thing that will help improve security for such situations: an informed and active citizenry. Right now, there is nothing to stop a terrorist from stopping a car near an airport, getting out, targeting a plane on the ground or taking off/coming in. With modern systems, and the SA18 and related are quite good, you can set up and fire in a matter of a minute or two. This means that “the proper authorities” are not going to be able to respond in a timely manner, unless we turn into a police state and flood every square foot for miles around each airport with security officers.
What it does mean is that each Citizen may well be required to be alert, be informed, make a good judgment call, and do what is needed if they see someone doing this. Yes, the authorities should be called, but at the same time the person with the missile needs to be distracted and/or dealt with. That is one of the responsibilities of being a Citizen, and we should not shirk from it.
Right now, the politicians and political hacks are in a tizzy, each fighting for airtime and to be seen “doing something.” What we need to do is resist temptation to rush in and create yet another large government program. What is needed is to step back, look at what is practical and doable for now, and begin work on systems that will be effective for the commercial environment, and will drive a new generation of technology to truly help improve security.
-30- « ...howl's done
A Gym and Cooking Update
Things progess at both locations. I still have a long ways to go to get where I want at the gym, especially after hurting my back a few weeks ago. There is so much more I have to learn about cooking at the restaurant as well. The good news is, I do know how much more I need to do/learn. howl on, brother! »I am getting better at some of the basic prep work, though I am no where near where I would like to be. My knife skills are improving, and I mainly have only nicks to show for goofs. Not all the nicks come from knives, some come from pans and such. While I carry a couple of others, most of my work is done with a sankoto chef's knife and a long-bladed paring knife. The other two tools used the most are a mellon baller and a Y-peeler. The latter is wonderful, and after using it you will never go back to a regular peeler.
At the gym, I am slowly building back to what I was doing before screwing up. I will have most of the machines/exercises back this week, with the exception of the ab crunch, rotary torso, hip thrusts, and touching of toes. The back still does not like bending forward that much, so it may be another two or three weeks before I even consider adding those back in. I've also had to drop the incline on the treadmill to no more than two percent, as the higher the incline the higher the amount of pain in the back. Did get back up to four miles today, and not feeling it too badly. Word of advice here is, do not mess with your lower back.
The gym and cooking have intersected in an interesting way. Not long after starting at 801 Franklin, I had a peculiar experience in the gym. I was on the treadmill doing my regular two miles when I suddenly smelled something not nice, in fact it had an onion smell. My response was "Man, who is that!" A minute later, and a good sniff of me, and it was "Oh man! That's ME!" It seems that the onion oil gets in the skin and comes out with the sweat. It even overrides garlic. I have been trying everything I can to deal with it but have not been entirely successful in dealing with it. Chef's Care soap does help, but is not complete. Lemon juice does not work, but is a great way to find a bunch of nicks you may not know you have.
The only other problem is that the red onions, red cabbage, and mushrooms have died the cuticles and skin around my fingernails dark, so that it looks like I have not cleaned under my fingernails in years. Scrubbing, cleaning, and such don't do as much as I would like, and I am seriously considering a bleach solution to try to clean them.
Other than that, both have been fun. Just thought you might like an update on both, realized that I had not done either in a week or more.
-30- « ...howl's done
Some Good News At 801 Franklin
The news is now out: 801 Franklin has just won its third consecutive Award of Excellence from Wine Spectator. It also means that the restaurant has met the basic criteria to be inspected for theDiRoNA award. Those inspections are secret, but we can hope that the restaurant is inspected and meets the high standards necessary to be selected. As of now, only two restaurants in Alabama have met all the tests.
LW Posted by wolf1 at 06:54 PM | Comments (0) | |