Surprise, Response

The previous post reminded me of one I’ve needed to do for a while. Some of the posts I do are to share knowledge and experience, some to share humor or joy, and some to provoke some thought. Especially if I’m not sure that things are being done and I want to push things while I am here to push them. On the latter, my concerns about the ability of humans to reproduce in space and microgravity are a good example, as I want to be sure it is something being looked at as we urgently need permanent settlements off this glorious mudball ASAP.

Right now, I want to talk a bit about command and control in the face of surprise. It is something I really hope is being looked at by Pete and company as they are taking care of a lot of things; and by the administration from a higher level. In particular, I want to look at nuclear command and control in the current environment.

A lot of our current system traces back to the pre-SAC days when Nightwatch was in Maryland and it was estimated we could have hours of notice. Even as that shrunk down, we’ve kept a lot of the basic premises past what I consider the best-buy date. As a result, I think we really, really, need to look at things and try to come up with something new.

Without going into too much detail (much less things that should not be talked about openly) our current system presumes something on the order of 30-minutes to an hour of warning of a surprise attack on the U.S. SecWar is the second man to the President for all intents and purposes, and is either with POTUS or in touch with him. POTUS is briefed on what is going on, confidence in the intel, etc. and uses the current iteration of the Single (Strategic) Integrated Operations Plan (SIOP) to order a response to the situation.

As we’ve discussed on here before in the “shall we play the game” category, the response is boiled down to a short (less than 200 characters) message that is then sent to the National Military Communications Center (NMCC) at the Pentagon who then re-codes it after confirmation, and sends it out to SAC (new version) and some other interested parties such as the Navy TACOMO planes. SAC then re-codes the order (after confirmation) and sends it out to it’s audience.

All well and good, and the two-man rule applies throughout. Well, all well and good if there is time. Are there alternatives if POTUS isn’t available or such? I’m told yes, though I have no details. Nor do I want them.

The thirty-minute window was predicated on detecting Soviet missiles being launched. Flight time from there to here is roughly thirty minutes. If we saw them fueling (Soviets/Russians use a lot of liquid-fueled ICBMs), longer period for response. That was sufficient: thirty or forty years ago.

Even twenty years ago, depressed trajectory shots from subs not too far off the coast cut that time from detection to impact to about fifteen minutes. The assurances the subs couldn’t get that close, and would be detected if they did, were deafening, though reminding me a bit of toddlers drumming their feet and yelling while having their fingers in their ears.

Today, we have massive container ships plying the waters of our country. If I can figure how to put one or more land-attack cruise missiles into a container for launch, I guarantee you others have as well. When you look at more modern drones, boy howdy are you talking the ability to get things in the air and to target with little or no detection. Iran has the capability (or did) and China has been openly experimenting with it. For all the open, think iceberg and know others have as well, a lot of others.

Thing is, if you launch like that from say a bay (and major trade route) near a capital city, you are potentially talking as little as five minutes from launch to impact. By the time the launch alert (if launch is even detected by anyone other than direct observers) gets to the right people in the military, you already have impact.

One also needs to factor in surface attack. Our borders were incredibly porous for way too long, and it is suspected that a lot more than people and drugs could have made it through. Small delivery van making the rounds in DC, passing in front of the White House, Congress, Pentagon…

I really, really do hope someone is looking at this, and looking to update the system. What we have now was good enough maybe ten years ago. Now, however… Think we need to rethink a number of things including designated survivors. I hope the world is about to get a lot more peaceful; but, you never plan for best case/most optimistic case. I will even go so far as to say we need some new designated survival centers as Camp David, Mount Weather, etc. are too well known.

Just a thought.

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Sinking, Surpises

If it weren’t for the fact most of it is coming from people (and bots) who hate the U.S. and/or are active supporters of the mad mullah’s terrorist regime, I would be surprised at all the accounts on X holding forth that it is wrong to engage in surprise attacks on your enemies, and that sinking the Iranian warship was a violation of international law. The fact that most of the latter couldn’t tell you the difference between the Hague and Geneva Conventions, or which Geneva convention is applicable, pretty much sums it up. Let me expand a bit on what I posted in response to a odious bit of drivel.

First, we are in a de facto war as Congress has not formally declared a state of war. Then again, Congress has not formally declared a state of war since WWII. It has approved actions under the War Powers Act, and under UN obligations (Korea) but the old forms of formal declarations hasn’t be used or honored in decades and is not likely to be any time soon. That’s a topic for another day, but most modern conflicts are likely to start with a surprise and end only when one party (if just two parties) isn’t standing.

Second, one can argue that Iran has been in a state of de jure war with us since 1979. They’ve been quite open about it, sacked our embassy, killed a thousand or so troops and civilians (some of whom were kidnapped), etc., etc., etc., as Yul used to say. They have funded quite a few terrorist organizations around the world as well, including some in our own hemisphere. Good odds they have sleeper cells in the U.S. right now as previously discussed here. There de jure state of war also applies to Israel.

Now, the U.S. and Israel looked at the board, saw Iran was not going to stop working to get nuclear weapons, was ramping up funding and supplies to various terrorist groups, and building up huge stockpiles of conventional drones and ballistic missiles, and were a major threat and not just a PITA. They constituted an existential threat to both countries, to Western Civilization and its concepts, and thus to the world. Game on as in a year or less they would be in a position to start the version of Armageddon that would bring out the hidden imam and delight their savage little hearts even if it didn’t bring him back. So, game on.

Iran chose to receive in this game of FAFO, and they have not enjoyed the FO. Their military, IRGC, and basij (sorry, not sorry, not capitalizing those jerks) and general leadership are in the process of being hunted and eliminated. While regime change may not be the formal goal, it will be an end result provided no one chicken’s out. Lot of people who’s rice bowls are being upset, and/or who just hate the U.S. including far too many American politicians, are pushing openly and covertly for the latter. Check out Data Republican on X for a LOT of good intel.

Somehow, both in the attack on Iran and the sinking of the cruiser, a number of useful idiots are out there screaming about how surprise isn’t fair. Personal take: if you are in a fair fight, your tactics sucketh more than a 10 to the -16th tor vacuum and so do you. Hate to break it to the defeatist chorus (who I suspect know very good and well and are just lying to foment problems) but from individual to squad, squad to senior leadership, achieving surprise is taught as a good thing to do, because the people doing the teaching are not idiots. Want a good primer on surprise at the strategic level? Read David Weber’s Honor Harrington series as it is discussed in detail (it is David after all) in a number of the books. Seriously, good reads anyway but a lot there for leadership.

Now, I can’t truly wrap my head around some of the arguments about the sinking of the Iranian military vessel. So, let’s have some fun.

It was a surprise attack! No Excrement! (My Godmother reads and has not been happy when I cuss). That’s classic submarine warfare be it against military vessels (a very good idea as they can and often do shoot back) or civilian merchant vessels of those with whom you are at war. Both are valid and fair targets per the laws and customs of war. You don’t give warning so you can be sure to sink them and not have them get away.

They were in international waters! Ah, take a look at where the majority of military and civilian ships sunk were sunk in previous wars. Go ahead, I’ll wait. <eye roll> In case you are wondering, I’m aware of no treaty and am prepared to say there is no treaty which we have ratified forbidding such.

The sub didn’t render aid to/pick-up survivors! They pretty much never have in the history of submarine warfare. Subs have a very limited space, limited supplies, no spare space, and a relatively small crew. As such, while it may be that a single person or a couple of people have been picked up by a sub, no sub is going to try to pick up a group of survivors that can easily outnumber its crew and for which they have no room to put them. Rescue has always been on surface ships and during WWII there were even ships designated for such in some convoys. Surface ships have larger crews, some free (if not very comfortable) space for housing survivors, etc. Even when subs picked up downed pilots in the Pacific in WWII, they were transferred to surface ships or land bases ASAP. Again, also, no treaty of which I am aware or to which we are a signatory obligates submarines to do so.

They were sailing from India/an exercise! So flipping what? They were an enemy combatant from a Navy that we had said from the start we were going to destroy in toto. They were sailing for a combat zone, even if it was home, with no signal of intent of non-belligerence. The captain could have initiated communications with neutral parties or the U.S. to say if he was just trying to get his crew home and would not attempt to take part in combat. He could have sought neutral port (see Graf Spee for limited example) for a time or allowed his crew and ship to be interned for the duration. He had options, did not take them, and as such was fair game by the laws and customs of war both.

They didn’t pose a threat! By who’s standards? They were a warship, and equipped with both anti-submarine sensor and weapons. They had surface capabilities as well. Even if every weapon was unloaded and every magazine empty or locked up tight, they were a threat as they could become armed at any time, including after returning home. Again, by the laws and customs of war, a fair and valid target.

I could go on, but that hits the high points. The defeatist chorus is extremely opposed to: winning any war where any credit can go to Trump; winning any war against a terrorist regime they’ve protected since 1979; winning any war that helps the survival of Israel; and, winning any war that saves or advances the tenets of Western Civilization which they hate almost as much as they hate themselves. That a lot of them are the so-called ‘credentialed elites’ that have been screwing things up by the numbers for several decades now should be a surprise to no one.

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Winter Bleg 26 5 March

First and foremost: THANK YOU to everyone who has donated to my Winter 26 Bleg! Particular thanks go out to Vodka Pundit for his post at Instapundit that brought most or all of you here. In addition to the automated thank you, I’ve hopefully sent a quick thank you to everyone I could. To all of you who donated anonymously, please accept my thanks! I also very much appreciate all the comments of support, prayers, and more that have been given. I also want to thank JC and LB for sending me something off my Amazon Wish List. I’ve made all the items needed for the pilgrimage highest priority, so they should show up first.

All the gifts, all the prayers and thoughts, and all of YOU are very much appreciated. Please help spread the word, as there is still a ways to go. THANK YOU!

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Winter Bleg 26 Continues

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Congratulations Silent Service

While it may not be a declared war via Congress, we are in a war none-the-less. So, no one — most particularly the mad mullahs of Iran — should be surprised that we are engaging in unconditional warfare against their navy. After all, Pete and company have been adamant from the start that the Iranian Navy was going to be completely destroyed.

So, it seems one of our attack subs (most likely, not formally identified yet) became the first U.S. submarine officially to sink an enemy surface ship since WWII. The footage is rather spectacular BTW.

Given how long it has been since the Silent Service has done anything more than drills and practice shots, you know they are pumped. I also imagine all the other subs are wishing they were in position to do the same. This is also triggering some thoughts as we have not fought against anyone with a full-spectrum military (army, navy, etc.) in a while and we need to be thinking, re-thinking, and adapting to a rapidly changing environment.

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Sinking Down

The other morning, Sarah posted a link to this post by Sgt. Mom over at Instapundit. It made me laugh as I think that is the one question I never got when giving or assisting with base tours. We got asked a lot of other things (no, there are no missile silos on this base, only one vertical test cell thank you) and I was the smartass who, answering someone else’s phone, I told someone that no, the alien bodies were not at our base they were all at Wright Pat (and helpfully gave them the PAO number there).

You do get some interesting questions when giving base tours, but what made me laugh was not the question in question. Rather, it reminded me of a base tour I had been on that nearly ended badly.

Many years ago, when dinosaurs still ruled the Earth and the ground still hot, I and a group of other Boy Scouts (back when it was still a real organization) got to go out to Philmont and hike. Now, the journey out there was long, so our council rented a bus and arranged for us to stay at military bases along the way. Let me just say that the Air Force had the best facilities and chow, and the Navy was not far behind. Sorry Green Machine, but they trounced you.

Now, one of those Air Force bases at which we lodged decided to give us a pretty good dog-and-pony on our visit, including having our bus go on a tour of said base. In fact, we were cleared to go along a very special flight line as part of that. Problem was, as always, someone didn’t get the word.

All of a sudden, we were surrounded. A truck whipped in front of our bus and stopped, tarp went up, and machine gun trained out. Men and trucks to either side did the same. Anyone looking in from outside would have seen most of the scouts (except “Carl” and a couple of friends) sliding down in their seats below the windows, like the thin metal of the bus sides were going to stop anything…

It got sorted, but about three minutes later we got hit like that again. After than, an appropriate officer stood in the front of the bus to handle things as we continued our tour. I don’t remember much from that dog-and-pony, but I sure do remember that.

Thanks for the memory, and a good laugh, Sgt. Mom.

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Winter 26 Bleg

I hate to do this, as your kind gifts over the last 4.5 years have kept me going. Right after I was hit by lightning that June, and things started going South rather rapidly, quite a few of you stood up and helped me out as I dealt with health issues, health bureaucracy, and general bureaucracy. At that time, I wanted nothing more than to get better and move to the desert SW. As I look out at the roughly inch of snow that fell here this morning, there is a part of me that still very much wants to move there.

That said, about 3.5 years ago, I found a new Church home and my desire for a new life took on a new meaning. It was something long building, as I had for years thought there was something I was supposed to be doing, though I wasn’t sure what it was that I was to do. It literally took getting hit by lightning to have a moment of clarity, and to slowly (I am a bit thick and slow) realize that the end doesn’t matter, only the path. Bit more on this later in the post.

It took more than three years to get a small monthly stipend going, and during that time your gifts literally allowed me to live as I had no real income during that time. I can’t tell you how much I appreciate those gifts, and all the prayers that came with them. Both mean more than I can ever truly express. Which is why I hate to ask for more, but my stipend is not huge and while things are improving, there is more to do than I can cover.

So, I’m going to do a formal Bleg. Haven’t done this in a while, but here’s what I’m looking at over the next year or so.

First up, keeping the blog up and the lights on costs about $500 right now. I’ve got some fairly stable hosting that at least sorta-handles Instalanches and the like. There are support services that help keep the spam at bay, and things running smoothly (or at least relatively so). I would not mind doing a bit more, and expenses could go up if I start doing more video and the like as planned.

Second, I am doing an experiment right now by taking a seminary course as a remote-learning non-degree student. I will note that if I do change to pursue a degree or certificate, everything should count towards that. The last round of neurological testing done last year said I should be able to take a course and pass it. I will also note the doctor who did the testing and I had an interesting side talk on the fact that I can still form new memories, but that the conditions to form new memories are not always there. So, trying some things, including something told to me by a fellow lightning strike survivor to aid in creating those conditions.

I will admit right now the class is wonderful, I’m truly enjoying it (its on the theology behind the Liturgy, the main worship service for Christians). It is also sometimes overwhelming and almost always like trying to drink from a firehose. It is testing my compensation systems for life, and I’m having to devise new stratagems for handling the loads. Which is good, very good, don’t get me wrong; but, it is not easy and I look back at being able to breeze through some courses with a degree of envy.

It is also expensive given my budget. Right now, looks like the total cost is going to be around $2k for the course. A couple of you have stepped up and covered registration and such, and it is much appreciated. Now, if I do okay with this course, I would like to try again this fall with another course, which will be another $2k (bit more). If that goes well, I would then try two courses, and if that goes well, and I have the blessing of my Priest, I would consider seeking a scholarship and try full-time. That’s in the future, but for this year alone having $4k would be a huge help.

Now, as my regular readers know, I have the opportunity to go on a pilgrimage this spring. I am Eastern Orthodox Christian, and belong to the Bulgarian Patriarchate which means my home Church is in Sophia, Bulgaria. So, I will be going to Sophia and basing out of there. The trip is for spiritual development and discernment, and as such I will be visiting Churches and monasteries (and possibly a seminary) in Bulgaria; will be going up to Bucharest, Romania for a visit (and cooking lessons, more in a bit); and, will be going to Mount Athos is Greece to spend some time there.

For those who don’t know, Mount Athos is one of the oldest Christian communities in the world. Short version: fairly soon after the start of Church, Christian hermits took up residence there; and, when monastic life became a thing, monasteries were established there; and, during various times of persecution and such, those monasteries became a refuge and many items were stored there.

Getting to visit requires getting a “visa” via an office of the Greek government on the mainland, as Mount Athos is accorded as it’s own territory, almost it’s own country in some ways. You then have to contact the monasteries to arrange to visit. I’ve been approved for my “visa” though I am attempting to change the dates of my visit. My Bishop (our Church has one Bishop for the USA, Canada, and Australia btw) has invited me to join him at one of the monasteries for a special service, and I’m now waiting to hear from the ‘visa office’ on my request to change the dates of my visit.

For all I am working to do this on the cheap, there are still expenses. I got a fairly good deal on the airfare; but, with all the fees and taxes added on it ended up about $1,800. I’ve found some short-term studio apartment rental in Sophia that look good, have stoves and oven, wifi (my seminar class will be finished while on the pilgrimage), and such, for about $33 a day, or a total of around $1,800 with taxes and fees. Several of them offer a service to pick me up and take me back to the airport even. While I’m in Bulgaria and Romania, I want to take some cooking lessons, one of which is Romanian country cooking in the Carpathian mountains. Right now, looking at about $750 for doing those. When one visits and stays at monasteries, they do appreciate donations and so I am budgeting $900 for that. I also want to budget for some hotel expenses as I can’t always stay at monasteries and such, so am adding $700 for that. I’m also budgeting $500 for trains, busses, and other transport. Sadly, given age and the joys of having been hit by lightning, I am having to get trip insurance that includes hospital and medical evacuation. That looks to be $800 (possibly a bit more). So, looking at about $7,250 for the trip itself.

Oh, for the record, if I die or am killed while on the pilgrimage, I’ve given instructions that I am to be buried there. No need to bring me back here, let me rest where I fall. This constitutes full legal notice to any and all parties who may (or may not) have a claim on my estate.

Now, there are some expenses that are not a direct cost, but also need to be considered. First up, a new cell phone. I have a non-numbered model senior-citizen special right now. I would like to upgrade that so I can handle a particular translation app and take better pictures and videos. Several have already asked if I will post pictures and videos, and I actually hope to do so daily. I really want to video some or all of the cooking classes, and various explorations of Churches and more. From the Carpathian mountains to Mount Athos, we are talking some beautiful country and I want to share it with you. Given that my phone won’t even trade in on a new mobile, am budgeting $1,500 for that. I also need a new pair of prescription sunglasses. Insurance will cover part of that, but I’m still going to be out roughly $500 simply because of my prescription (rarely can be ground in store). Not looking for super high end, just a solid pair of glasses and yes I’ve already priced some out. Now that physical therapy and massage therapy have me walking more normally, I need a new pair of Redwings, and those will be about $135. For all that I feel their quality has slipped, these shoes are incredibly comfortable, can handle rough terrain at need, and are safety shoes — which can come in handy. Now, I also am looking at some specialty clothes, including a vest that a priest I know speaks highly of that can even be worn with a cassock (not an issue for me at present) that is pickpocket and RF resistant. Also looking at a couple pairs of pickpocket proof pants and such, and some decent travel pants that can be line dried at need (several of the apartments have washers, no dryers). There are some other miscellaneous things, including the backpack I bought that does not put weight on my artificial shoulders (app $450). So, budgeting about $300 for the miscellaneous (excluding pack). Which makes this part about $2,435.00.

So, I’m looking at a goal of $14,185. That’s a lot, though I admit it should probably be rounded up to $14,500. Heck, the marketing types would probably suggest that or more, but I would be grateful for any of that. Everything helps and is very much appreciated.

Now, I know some people may not want to donate money as that can be misspent, misused, etc. So, I’ve put as much of the clothing and other items for the trip on my Amazon Wish List and made them highest priority, so they should show up first. And, yes, I hope to ship over some things in advance (supplements and other supplies) so I don’t have to carry them in my luggage.

Now, to go back to something mentioned earlier. I am on a path of which I do not know the end, when it comes to this new life. I’m helping at my Church, taking this class to see how well I can handle it, and to, if possible, to push on down that path. It has several possible destinations, from monastic life to the priesthood. I have faith I will be guided to the destination that is right for me. This trip is a part of that process and I am thankful to my Priest and my Bishop for their help, encouragement, and guidance on this journey. And I appreciate your help, your prayers, your gifts in allowing me to make this journey.

Before I forget, I did promise to say more on the cooking lessons. I’ve already contacted and made tentative arrangements for one cooking lesson in Sophia, which will provide an introduction to Bulgarian cooking. There are some other possibilities there as well, but nothing scheduled yet. In Bucharest, I actually may have the chance to take three different classes: one introductory course to Romanian cooking, a cheese-making class, and one where I will be taken into the Carpathian mountains and learn Romanian country cooking. I’m hoping for more really, particularly in Sophia but we will see.

If this goes well, and there is any money left over, I am already thinking about a possible trip to the Holy Lands. Just an idle thought for now, as we need to see how well I do on this trip first, but it is there. And if I can go, I will be reaching out to some people for help in doing a bit more than the normal, as there would be at least three graves I would like to visit that are tied to October 7.

So, with reluctance and hope I make a winter bleg to you. I will be pinning this to the top, or reposting every day, to keep it available this week. I hope to do other, regular, posting as well, but want to push this while I can.

Thank you all for all you have done. I could not have made it this far without your help, your prayers, and your gifts. Your love, if you will. My hope for all of us is that there is much more to come.

Thank you.

UPDATE I: My thanks to G for using Zelle in the Bard’s Jar. You were the first too do so; I hope it went well for you; and, I did get it and it is applied to the trip. Thank you so much!

UPDATE II: First and foremost: THANK YOU to everyone who has donated to my Winter 26 Bleg! Particular thanks go out to Vodka Pundit for his post at Instapundit that brought most or all of you here. In addition to the automated thank you, I’ve hopefully sent a quick thank you to everyone I could. To all of you who donated anonymously, please accept my thanks! I also very much appreciate all the comments of support, prayers, and more that have been given. I also want to thank JC and LB for sending me something off my Amazon Wish List. I’ve made all the items needed for the pilgrimage highest priority, so they should show up first. All the gifts, all the prayers and thoughts, and all of YOU are very much appreciated. Please help spread the word, as there is still a ways to go. THANK YOU!

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.

Dear Bill

Not sure if you will get this letter, but if it can get through to Lance Corporal Bill J. Stelpflug, USMC, I would appreciate it. I don’t have his forwarding address, the last address I have for him was at the Marine Barracks in Beirut, and I would like him to know a few things that have been going on.

First, an apology. I used to write you every year on the anniversary, but many of those notes were lost in various attacks on hosting providers by the very people who attacked the barracks. It’s my bad for not staying on top of things, and I do apologize for it.

I heard from your mother many years back, right when I first began writing to you. I wanted to keep your memory alive, in a time where so many seemed determined to forget and/or move on. She was so happy to see me write to you, and wrote to me and we talked a bit.

Your sister was happily married and had started a family. You’ll be glad to know we never did date, though I was smitten with her. I never did share those pictures I took of her in my improvised studio with her or anyone, as I screwed them up. I was still learning then, and it was a ‘learning experience’ of which I was ashamed. I might could rescue the shots these days in digital, and might try if I could give them to her. I was so happy to learn she was happy and thriving, though she and your brothers (and your parents) missed you terribly.

I enjoyed chatting with your mom, and catching up. It was a chance to remember simpler times, joyful and beautiful times. She was (is, I hope) a nice and dear lady.

My Dad was the Marine, and I was something else; but, what happened at the Barracks hit hard for us both. Not sure it was much, or did much good, but never missed a chance to try to poke the mad mullahs in the eye (or hit lower) if I got the chance. Nor did I miss a chance to recommend that others do so officially and unofficially.

Today, the tab the mullahs have been running got called. The original ayatollah has long since gone to whatever awaits him. His successor, who in many ways was even more evil, has paid the tab for all that was done. In fact, quite a few of the leadership seems to have departed with him. Pity, no? We can but hope that the demonic despots fall, and that Iranians regain their freedom. It is up to them now.

Not going to bore you with a bunch of drivel. Know I’m glad you and your brothers didn’t ‘have a word with me’ when I was interested in your sister, who deserved and found someone much, much better. Wish you hadn’t transferred to post eternal, and were still here with your family and friends. I pray the Lord has enfolded you in his light and comfort, that you rest with the saints where the light of his countenance visits you, and that you be judged to join those at his right hand.

LW

Iran Underway

Not a surprise. The embassy evacuations yesterday, that had to be done by the evening local time, were a sign. It may be hours or even a day or two before a lot of reports can be confirmed, but there are some things that are clear even now.

First, clearly a decapitation/regime change strike. The U.S. seems to be focused on infrastructure and some logistics, while Israel is taking out the rest. No surprise, and a good use of resources as (and I’ve noted this before) Israel has an almost frightening degree of penetration within Iran. When you can plant bombs in light fixtures months or longer in advance, set up robotic machine gun arrays, and more, you do indeed own your target.

That seems to be getting put to very good use in this attack. One of the firmer rumors out there is that the attack commenced once the senior leadership of the mad mullah regime were gathered together for a meeting. Much like the start of the 12-day war. Except, this time, it wasn’t military and nuclear leadership, it was the full top leadership including the ayatollah his own self. Seems that once that was confirmed, boomity.

Despite that, I’m taking reports of various eliminations with a grain of salt simply because one should. An operational rule for such things is never accept the initial reports, and even with some confirmation plan and continue as if the strike failed. If nothing else, you take out the secondaries and even tertiaries along with leadership that could fill any vacuum. Fact is, pretty much the entire membership of the IRGC will have to be taken out for any regime change to succeed. For those on X and wanting to keep up with the latest, here is a link to my Intel list.

I am wondering if, once again, Israel has blown open the doors to Evin prison. I certainly hope so. Both the U.S. and Israel have sent the message to the Iranian people that it is up to them. The Pahlavi team has as well. Video coming out of Iran has shown people literally dancing in the street in celebration. All good signs, but I also hope to see some concrete actions starting soon once the initial strikes are over. That will tell the tale.

It should also be noted that Iran has probably sealed its fate no matter what. By attacking all its neighbors with a strike, it turned neutrals and potential neutrals into enemies. Worst miscalculation: Saudi Arabia. The attack on them broke cultural and other norms, and has brought the Saudis into a full state of war against Iran. If things don’t move fast enough inside Iran, don’t be surprised if the neighbors don’t act. Side thought, this is also going to do more to strengthen the Abraham Accords than almost anything else could have done.

There is also a lot of truth to the discussions that October 7th was the worst military blunder in history. Most are putting the blame on Hamass, but the operation was approved and encouraged by Iran. It was a gamble, and if Hezballess had joined in as apparently planned, it could have put Israel on ropes. Or worse even. Instead, for a day of horrific rape and murder, Hamass, Hezballess, and other Iranian proxies are a shadow of their former selves militarily (sadly, politically still viable thanks to enablers and supporters among the progressives in the West). Now, the head of the serpent may well have been cut off. If Iran does get freedom, expect to see a number of open and covert proxies develop problems.

Along that line, if you have not read Kurt Schlichter’s book The Attack do so quickly. Today is not a day for sandstone, but a time to go red and put your head on a swivel. Of the millions who came over the border under Biden (and even before), a number of IRGC members or operatives are believed to have been among them. They might not be happy at regime change, and they may have received orders (or had standing orders) in that regard. Be prepared.

Not going to say much, but while I suspect some of that threat has been neutralized, I wouldn’t bet on it. I’ve seen it apparently happen once before, many years ago, but one should never count on a repeat. Be prepared.

More soon. I truly hope the people of Iran take this opportunity to reclaim their country. I hope they make good choices and decisions, and embrace freedom. The world will be much better off if they do so. That said, it is up to them. This is their moment, pray they rise up to it.

Meantime, keep your eye on Pakistan-Afghanistan. This in many ways has the potential to be more serious and have even larger consequences on the world than Iran. Right now, about every jihadist group in the world is siding with the Taliban. This includes certain families and groups such as the Haqqani. On the positive side, Pakistan has the chance to do the world a huge favor if it eliminates those groups/networks/etc. They have already taken out a Taliban general it seems.

The downside to this conflict is the tribal nature of the region. If enough tribes/families turn, there is a potential for Pakistan to either fall, or fall into internal turmoil that is not good in a nuclear nation. The last thing anyone should want is nuclear weapons or materials falling into the hands of the jihadis.

It is not a simple situation with simplistic solutions or ideals. Approaching it as simplistic is a potential invitation to disaster. If anyone tells you it is simplistic and X must be done, especially a politician, shun them and their proposal. It is easy to say ‘we should support Pakistan’ but you also need to recognize that tribal loyalties matter more — even within the Pakistani government — than most in the West can grasp. Personally, I hope Pakistan ends up eliminating a number of threats to the West and the world. However, my support is selective as I don’t want to see certain factions (tribes) gain sway on the ground or in the government. For all that Iran can still hurt us, having nukes in the wrong hands could be much, much worse.

Right now, all we can do is wait and watch. I expect the mad mullahs and their ilk to try their best to take everyone down with them. Keep in mind, they want such as a means to get the hidden imam to return. Also, they are just that type of people and they will do everything they can to get as many civilians and others killed. They are also going to double down on lies and more, and are likely to try to get as many proxies or remote teams to take action as possible.

Which means the next few weeks are going to be a time to be on watch and be prepared. It is always good to use and exercise your rights, but the next few weeks will be a crystal clear time to do so. Be prepared to walk fast at need, and to maintain situational awareness. Be Prepared.

One more thing: you are going to hear a lot of politicians and other supporters of the Iranian government screaming about the attack being illegal. It’s not. The courts have ruled on this even. Generally, the President can act unilaterally though he should brief Congress within 48 hours, and Congress has to approve if action goes for more than 60 days. Please don’t fall for the lies.

More later perhaps. Still recovering from yesterday morning, so likely taking as much of the day off as possible.

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Iran And Pakistan

Things appear to be ramping up further in regards Iran. It is being reported that the U.S. Embassy to Israel has told non-essential staff they are free to go, a move one rung below mandatory evacuation. Lots of assets moving into the region or to nearby ready positions. Think it won’t take much to set things off, but I think eyes are also needed elsewhere.

The war between Afghanistan and Pakistan is one to really keep a close eye on. I didn’t mention it this morning as there was a lot of smoke and not a lot of flame. Think that is changing and will likely share more soon as it looks to be getting serious with other parties in the area taking sides. It also looks like the taliban has already lost a general and unconfirmed reports of other losses for Afghanistan. This could get really interesting, really fast.

Please check out my Winter 26 Bleg!

Getting hit by lightning is not fun! If you would like to help me in my recovery efforts, and to start a truly new life, feel free to hit the fundraiser at A New Life on GiveSendGo, use the options in the Tip Jar in the upper right, or drop me a line to discuss other methods. If you want to know some of what it is going for, read here. There is also the Amazon Wish List in the Bard’s Jar. It is thanks to your gifts and prayers that I am still going. Thank you.